Pitch Itchy

What We Already Knew is Now Done

2011-04-13T20:19:00.000-07:00

All four of the quarterfinals went pretty much as we all thought they would. Here are some quick thoughts on the least compelling second leg set of matches in a while: United v Chelsea- Nicholas Anelka lacked the sharpness he has/had at his peak. Could easily have had two goals. Chelsea, as a team, got caught in bad positions defensively. On both goals for sure but 3 or 4 other times. Barcelona v Shaktar- Watch them play and it feels like every player is a superstar, and in a way that's true. Watching the two games in a guy that really shone was Dani Alves. He still has his moments of concern defensively, but he really is the best attacking fullback in the world. Schalke v Inter- It was a great ride. I saw my team become champions of Europe and then be only the second team to ever come back from losing the first leg at home. Going out to Schalke hurts but I can't complain. Spurs v Real Madrid- It is tough to not be disappointed when being knocked out of a competition but Tottenham have a lot to be proud of. They've been on a great run the last two seasons. Eyes on el primer clasico: I was interested to see how the two Spanish teams would approach their return legs, given that their first show down is this Saturday. With Barcelona 8 points clear at the moment anything but a Real Madrid victory will essentially crown Barsa champions. Barcelona traveled much further to play in the Ukraine than Madrid did to London, but they also have an extra day to recover, so I think the hangover factor is about equal. I was a bit surprised to see neither team rested too many of its regulars. Messi got the full 90 as did a lot of other starters. Real Madrid had a lot of players on the brink of suspension and Ricardo Carvalho got burned. His yellow at White Hart Lane will result in his absence in the first leg of the semi-final. We'll have two head to head games to judge these sides on by the time the semi-final kicks off, but as of now I like Barcelona to go through. A draw in Madrid and a win in Barcelona.

Only Game In Town

2011-04-11T16:56:00.001-07:00

I don't remember the last time only 1 of the 4 quarter finals merited a watch in its second leg. Miracles of varying degree would be necessary for Inter, Spurs, or Shaktar to make it interesting tomorrow and Wednesday. The only match with any appeal is Chelsea's visit to Old Trafford, and even here I have a strong suspicion United will make the 1-0 away win from last week stand up without much of a threat. Obviously a lead gives a team an edge going into the return leg, an away goal even more so. But beyond that I feel Chelsea's attack lacks the cohesion necessary to unlock a defense that knows it wins by drawing. With the names on the team sheet scoring shouldn't be a problem but for some reason Torres has gone dead cold and I feel like trying to shoe-horn all the top talent onto the field at the same time is working against the Blues. United's back four isn't impregnable but they are more than adequate. Add to that the very credible threat on the counter with Rooney/Hernandez/Berbatov and it looks like United will be back in the semi-finals. A non-Champs League related note: Valencia crushed table rivals Villarreal over the weekend 5-0. This game was a battle between roughly equal teams in the sub-elite region of the Spanish table and the victory put los che 6 points up on the yellow subs for the last automatic Champions League spot with only 7 games remaining. I have been very impressed with Valencia all season and I thought yesterday's win was symbolic of the team they've become. Economic realities forced the sale of David Villa and David Silva before the season, unquestionably their two best players, and being starters on the Spanish national team they would be amongst the best players at any club. Instead of throwing their hands up and accepting a rebuilding process they brought in modestly priced players like Miguel Soldado and Aritz Aduriz and found a way to make it work.

Four Clasicos It Is...

2011-04-06T17:36:00.001-07:00

Wednesday's batch of quarter-final matches were more predictable than the first two. A pretty close affair at the Bridge saw United score a road win by the minimum margin and Barcelona mauled Shaktar at the Camp Nou. I got to see the Barcelona game and although I predicted a 3-0 win I wasn't surprised by the 5-1 scoreline in the least. Going in the two biggest questions were 1, will Shaktar abandon their attacking philosophy in favor of a pragmatic approach and 2, if/when they concede the first goal will they open it up and chase the equalizer or try to lose 1-0? Barcelona struck early going up within five minutes and to their credit and/or detriment the Ukrainians did try to go forward and make something happen. The game was 2-0 at the half and when they the visitors got on the board to make it 3-1 there was almost a full minute where it seemed like the return leg held out some hope but then Messi made a great run and laid it off for Keita to blast into the upper corner and restore the margin. Xavi added one more to put the nail in the coffin. Barcelona were clearly going to win this game but I get the feeling Shaktar made it easy by chasing the game. It is tough to tell a team that has gotten this far that it should forego its game but reality is reality. If you go into the Camp Nou to spread men around the field and mount a flowing attack, you are going to be shredded to pieces. The return leg is now just a formality.

Whoa

2011-04-05T17:00:00.001-07:00

I (thankfully) wasn't able to get out of work early to watch today's Champions League games. I kept tabs on both games and was dismayed to see Inter blow two leads and then totally collapse and all but say goodbye to the idea of defending their crown. I don't even want to watch the highlights let alone the replay. 5-2 is a monstrous deficit to overturn. They would need at least 4 goals in the second leg to go through. Boo. I'd thought Real Madrid would win comfortably but in a blow out. They got out to an early lead and essentially put this one away in the first leg. 4-0 and from all I read they absolutely dominated. I saw still shots of both Crouch yellows and they seemed justified. That Harry Redknapp came out and said he deserved to be sent off cements it for me. The margin in this one may allow Mou to rest some key players when they go the White Hart Lane, something crucial since they have a grueling end of the season coming up. Tomorrow: Chelsea vs. Manchester United- I know Chelsea won their most recent league meeting but these two clubs feel worlds apart to me. When I look at Chelsea I see a collection of well paid superstars with a median age dangerously close to retirement. Yes they win a lot of games and on any given day can beat nearly any opponent. But they have turned in disapointing performances with shocking frequency. And then there is United, a side with markedly less star-power than it has had in recent years yet they continue to plug ahead and tally win after win after win. Currently alive on three fronts and in the driver's seat to claim a record 19th first division English title. I see a draw at Stamford Bridge tomorrow and then Manchester United winning in the return leg to go through to the semi-final. 1-1. Barcelona vs. Shaktar Donetsk- Despite Pep Guardiola's unconvincing press conference in which he said for the first time he didn't like what he saw and that he had a bad feeling about this I think the Spanish champions will be back in the CL semi-final for the third consecutive year. Shaktar is a team that play good football, use their fullbacks, and move the ball up the park with skilled passing. This has enabled them to be a force in the Ukraine and reach the final 8 in Europe. But against Barcelona, particularly at the Camp Nou, they have a critical choice to make. When the big fish is out of the little pond and fighting for it's life will it stick to its guns, or acknowledge reality and hunker down in a defensive posture? I know what I would do. As much as it might wound egos if Shaktar attempt to move the ball up the pitch from the back tomorrow Barcelona will pick them off and end the tie within a half hour. The one ray of hope for the Ukrainians is that Pep's Barsa have never won a knock-out stage Champions League game away from Cataluna. This should be even more incentive to park the bus, hang on for dear life, and live to fight another day back home. That said, I see Barcelona 3-0 winners tomorrow.

The Quarters are Upon Us

2011-04-04T20:21:00.000-07:00

The Champions League has returned quickly and the first batch of Quarter Final matches are tomorrow. The last eight teams are a collection of super-powers featuring the last three champions plus Chelsea and Real Madrid. Although it may seem like the a consolidation of the powerful there will be good matches and interesting storylines. Here is my opinion on what we will see tomorrow: Real Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur- Whoever they play Real Madrid will always be a big story and with Jose Mourinho at the helm that is even more true. This particular match-up features the return of Rafael van der Vaart and (surprisingly) Jonathon Woodgate to the place they once called home. If there is a possible "right time" to catch Real Madrid in Europe this may well be it for Spurs. A team loaded with internationals is coming off a FIFA break which may have disrupted their training schedule, they lost their first home game of the season over the weekend to the humble Sporting Gijon, and injuries will keep Benzema out of the game and make Cristiano Ronaldo and Marcelo game time decisions. That said all signs still point to Real Madrid taking a win in the first leg. They have better players with more experience at this stage, a coach who is safely better than his counterpart, they are playing at home, and most importantly when comparing the strengths and weaknesses of both clubs Madrid come out on top. The Spurs central defense is not very mobile and although I believe Basong and Dawson can probably neutralize the Madrid target man (most likely Higuain) the diversity of options Madrid have in attack will be too much to handle. CR7 and Di Maria will exploit the space created by Higuain. Real Madrid's 4-2-3-1 formation will allow them to defend against Spurs' two biggest strengths: creativity in the attacking midfield and Gareth Bale's run up the flank. The two holding midfielders should be enough of a shield to prevent van der Vaart and the Croats from creating the kind of opportunities they have against most teams. Having two players in there will also permit one to drift out and support Sergio Ramos when Bale comes tearing up the field. Of course Spurs could come in and shock the Bernabeu but looking at tomorrow's game I see a 2-0 win for los blancos. Inter Milan vs. Schalke 04- In some ways this looks like a huge mismatch, the defending champion against a team mired in the middle of the German table. But given how much turmoil both of these teams have gone through this season maybe that doesn't matter. I will admit I've only seen Schalke play a handful of times and don't have a great grasp of their identity. With a coach who has only been in charge for a week and a half I would venture to say not many people know what we will see when the Germans take the field at the San Siro tomorrow. To this point they have been a modest team that works hard in the midfield and has some individuals up front who can make magic. Raul and Jefferson Farfan can change a game in an instant. Inter are coming of a derby loss but made clear in the last round that they have championship pedigree requisite for big moments on the big stage. Diego Milito looks to be a last minute decision and I suspect he will start on the bench. With Pazzini cup-tied this is likely to leave Eto'o with a lot to shoulder up front. I think this will result in Schalke being comfortable in sitting back and making Inter take the game to them. At first glance that might look promising for the visitors, but if it plays out that way Inter have a lot of weapons in the midfield that can be dangerous if they are given space to come forward. Sneijder is well known for his attacking abilities but he will not be alone. I think Inter will win a not-too-exciting first leg 1-0.

Clash at the Camp Nou

2011-03-07T15:18:00.000-08:00

It feels like forever ago that Arsenal won the first leg in London, but it was really just three weeks. What once seemed like a formality has the possibility of being an instant classic when they play the return leg in Barcelona. Going into Camp Nou with a lead is a dramatic improvement over Arsenal's position when they visited last year and need to either win or draw at more than two to survive. Yes Barcelona has an away goal, but the onus is fully on the Spanish champions this time.

Another thing the Gunners have going for them is what appears to be a series of fortunate breaks on the injury front. Samir Nasri, Cesc Fabregas, and Jack Wilshire all are rumored to be match fit, something that seemed out of the question only a week ago. Of these, Cesc is particularly valuable because he has a steady foot in possession and an ability, perhaps singular on this squad, to spot the kill pass scenario. The not so good news on in this regard is that Alex Song, probably their best ballwinning midfielder, is not in the squad list. Neither is Theo Walcott.

Barcelona have injury problems of their own as their starting central defense tandem will miss the game and Pep is a question mark on the sideline due to a herniated disc.

I believe the game will be a great one but it is likely to unfold in a predictable way. Arsenal will stick one man high and aim to deny the opponent of scoring opportunities. A lot of bodies around the ball and probably not too far back against their own goal. Barcelona will dominate possession of the ball as they always do and take advantage of the cautious Arsenal gameplan, at times overloading the flanks.

The outcome is far from set but I still believe Barcelona will advance.

The Roma Shaktar match that was never interesting to begin with is all but decided so...

No Upsets Here

2011-02-22T17:17:00.000-08:00

Today's two games hinted that two of Europe's biggest clubs, Chelsea and Real Madrid, will be in the quarterfinal stage of the Champions League. Le Sulk notched a brace to put struggling Chelsea in excellent position to move forward. To blow a two away goal lead at Stamford Bridge would be a monumental collapse.

The Lyon-Real Madrid match was a bit more interesting. I was surprised the French club had more shots and won more corners, despite losing the possession battle 59-41. They conceded first and had to chase the equalizer, something they probably did not want to do. But they got it and they go to Madrid with a real, if dim, hope of advancing. I thought this would be a nil draw and Real Madrid would take care of business at home, but getting an away goal was big. That Cristiano Ronaldo stayed out of the referee's book was enormous because he is teetering on the brink of suspension via accumulation. Mou's teams are exceptional at home and the Benzema's away goal puts the onus on Lyon to attack when they would clearly prefer to absorb and counter at the Bernabeu.

I am very excited for the Inter-Bayner Munich game tomorrow. It is a rematch of last year's final but it that feels so far away. Inter suffered through the brief Benitez era since that day in Spain and although Bayern have most of the squad (minus MVB) that lost that day in tact it feels like a different club. They have been good away in Italy in recent years but Inter have improved dramatically since Leonardo took over. Their methods of attack will be very different from what they employed at the Bernabeu, and having Pazzini cup-tied may complicate things, but I see a narrow victory for the champions setting up a classic in the second leg.

The Marseille-Manchester United tie might be the least interesting of this round. Draw in France win at Old Trafford. A fairly unremarkable version of the English superpower safely advance to the final eight, where they belong. Yawn.

More Round of 16

2011-02-21T18:00:00.000-08:00

Twice last week I picked against an English club and both times I was wrong. With Chelsea traveling to Copenhagen tomorrow I will not make the same mistake. As lacklustre as the Blues have looked recently they just have too much talent to lose to a team that is essentially just happy to be here at this state of the competition. Chelsea are humiliated and frustrated to be out of the F.A. Cup and out of striking distance from the top of the table, but there may be a slight silver lining here in that it liberates them from other committments and allows them to focus on the Champions League. It would be a shock if they were to return to London trailing after the first leg. It would also likely mean Carlo Ancelotti's sacking.

The other match-up is far more interesting. Real Madrid travel to France for the first leg of their rematch against Lyon. The French club upset Madrid at this same stage last year and success here is a high priority for Mou's team. They are clearly the favorite in this tie but if there was one team they could have drawn who has a chance to knock them off I think Lyon is the one. As they showed last time the clubs met Lyon are a very good defensive team. They are disciplined, well organized, understand positional needs, good tacklers, and perhaps most importantly for a team that is resigned to play a counter-attacking style over two legs have the ability to surprise and players that can make the most of the rare chance they may get. In this regard there is good and bad news for Lyon. Bad: Licha Lopez, their most lethal striker, has been ruled out for tomorrow's game. The Good: Michel Bastos who plays in a variety of defensive positions can make surprising and deadly runs forward, the kind that are nearly impossible to predict and difficult to stop. I still think Real Madrid will make it to the quarter final for the first time in a half dozen years, but Lyon have more than a puncher's chance.

Spurs Stunner and Manana

2011-02-15T18:10:00.000-08:00

So I was wrong about the Milan Spurs game. Tottenham got an immensely valuable away win in the first leg, 1-0. I only saw highlights but it looks like they deserved the victory from Peter Crouch's goal. Also, Reno Gattuso, wtf bro... bad move. Next time you do that, don't do that.

Raul scored on his return to Spain to salvage a 1-1 draw for Schalke. This gives them a pretty good scenario going back to Germany. If Valencia had a little more experience in the squad they might have a shot at turning it around because an away goal might be all they need, but I kind of get the sense this is as far as they will get. Considering they offloaded their two best players in the summer it is not bad at all.

Tomorrow we will see the first of the rematch ties, Arsenal versus Barcelona. It has been said over and over: these teams play similar styles. Barcelona got the best of the Gunners in last year's 1/4finals, and I believe the same will happen this time. It is true the these teams' games mirror each other, but Barcelona are better in every aspect and probably every position. Both teams thrive in possession but Barcelona are far superior in pressure and recovery. What will Arsenal do when they don't have the ball for long stretches at a time? And how will they get it back without conceding dangerous free kicks? All things being equal I would say a nil draw at the Emirates and a multi goal margin in the Camp Nou, but with Samir Nasri likely to miss the first leg, the sting of the 1-1 in Gijon at the weekend, and the memories of last spring at play I think Barcelona might win in London.

The Roma-Shaktar tie is intriguing. Mostly because Roma are wildly unpredictable and Shaktar are virtually unknown to me. When Roma are on their game they can hold their own with the elite clubs in Europe, but they are not on their game consistently enough to be considered one of those clubs. Shaktar won their group and have a difficult ground for foreigners to win at. I suspect a result away will be even more of an advantage than usual in this one.

Round of 16 is here!

2011-02-14T19:36:00.001-08:00

The lay-off between the group stage and the knock-out rounds of the Champions League is so long sometimes I almost forget about the competition. But the wait is over, two first legs tomorrow and another two follow on Wednesday.

One of the match-ups I've been looking forward to since the draw is AC Milan vs Tottenham. I find this interesting because of the conflicting styles, AC Milan are a solid defensive team with a group of attack players that can make the most of their chances while Tottenham always seem happy to roll the dice and go for goals. But beyond that the different places these teams are coming from adds some spice to it. AC Milan have won the title multiple times and are a familiar site in the late stages of the Champions League. Spurs on the other hand have not even been in the competition since before it was re-tooled as the CL. As one might expect experience is heavily lopsided in favor of the Italians.

The first leg is being played in Milan which might suggest a slightly more cautious approach from Spurs to begin with, and the news that Gareth Bale will miss the game and RvdV might as well makes me think we will see a different Spurs than the last time they were at the San Siro. This could actually play in their favor because a less aggressive game plan will limit the counters they expose their defense to. I firmly believe if tomorrow's game produces a winner that team will go through to the quarter finals. I want Spurs to win for multiple reasons but I am pretty sure AC Milan will score a victory tomorrow. The current Milan squad is the best it has been since they won the Champions League back in 2007 and clearly deserves its position at the top of the Italian table. If there is one vulnerability in Milan's game it is their fullbacks, but without Bale's dangerous wide play to expose it, they should be able to deal. I also think Ibrahimovic versus Gallas and/or Dawson is a head to head that favors the home team.

Thoughts on Tomorrow's Manchester Derby

2011-02-11T17:36:00.000-08:00

City-United means City divided, the Manchester derby always has its share of appeal, but tomorrow's edition has is particularly intriguing. It is the first time in decades the two teams are this close this late in the season. Only five points separate table toppers United from third place City. There are other storylines like Tevez versus his old team and the sense that new-money City may be on the brink of becoming more than the noisy neighbor. Going in two things stand out to me: City are well set to trouble United, and the Premiership title could be decided in this game.

For a club with a seemingly unlimited supply of transfer funds Manchester City have placed a surprising focus on defense. Solid, stingy play in their end kept them afloat through some lean times offensively. But they are much more than a defend and counter team. Yes the spine of the team is rock solid from Joe Hart in goal to the center halves to the De Jong-Barry-Toure holding midfield corps. But they an array of attacking options. The Tevez-Dzeko partnership up front is lethal. Adam Johnson and David Silva are among the very best widemen in the Prem and Silva can also be used as a creative force more closely behind the strikers. And they do have the ability to attack from the fullback positions with Zabaleta and Boateng. This matters because given their ability to close space in the middle of the park United will be forced to look for creative ways to generate opportunities, likely committing men forward, and there will be chances for City to strike.

As awkward as it feels to write this sentence, for having been undefeated into February United aren't that good a team. They are a very good team, but the fact they pulled off that feat and are only four points clear of Arsenal and five of City says a lot. What they are is professional and efficient. United take the points they should and that may be enough to reclaim the crown. But there is a lot at stake tomorrow. If they are unable to rebound from the odd debacle at Wolves last week and one loss turns to two, they would find themselves with two clubs breathing down their necks and within two points. Although they would remain in the driver's seat for the time being I am convinced the lighter calender will give City an advantage. They are free to concentrate fully on the league and while Chelsea and even Arsenal can rotate players and remain reasonably competitive the United squad, particularly in midfield and the middle of the defense, is worryingly thin. At the same time a United victory may solidify their lead.

This will be a fascinating game to watch and no outcome would shock me, but I am going to say Manchester City win by a goal.

Liverpool Start Post-Torres Era Strong

2011-02-06T09:58:00.000-08:00

Although the first game after El Nino's departure was the 2-0 midweek win the battle at the Bridge had everyone's attention. Torres's performance was nearly anonymous. He lasted just over an hour without ever seriously threatening Pepe Reina's net. The lone goal came from Raul Meierels who partnered Dirk Kuyt up front. I know everyone has been saying the "off the leash" approach Dalglish has taken to R.M. has transformed Liverpool, but because it is so true and so important, I will say it too. He looks like a different player from earlier in the season and the club are better off for it.

What I really took away from this game was that Carlo Ancelotti did not give his men the best chance to win. While Liverpool came out in a very flexible (nominal) 3-5-2 he opted for a 4-3-3 that allowed him to play the new signing along with Anelka and Drogba. While I understand the temptation to force all the talent onto the pitch this created a numbers game in favor of Liverpool in the middle of the field. Add to this the fact that none of those three are players who track back and labor when out of possession it seemed from the start that Chelsea were putting themselves at a disadvantage. To be fair I wouldn't say the Chelsea midfield were over run, but their inability to flow play toward their dangermen up front was evident.

And then the substitutions... this game reminded me of the loss to Arsenal over the holidays when Carlo blew his 3 changes on like for like moves that didn't impact the game. He brought Torres off which was probably the right call but slotted Kalou in his place. A drop in quality without really changing the dynamic. Next he took off Jon Obi Mikel in favor of Florent Malouda, presumably to chase the game. This makes sense because Malouda has been very dangerous this season but if you are in a 4-3-3 this either burden's him with defensive responsibilities that nullify his attacking play or it is begging to get countered and double the deficit. Finally the introduction of David Luiz for Jose Bosingwa seemed more an excuse to show off another new big money signing than anything else. He doesn't add an attacking dimension and if anything the Brazilian looked a little wobbly.

To further underline the triumph for Liverpool they pulled off the away win without the use of either of their new strikers. Meanwhile the Blues spent what they had and it wasn't enough. A 50 million pound signing is made with the long term in mind and given that he may be at his most usefulthis season in the CL I won't say it was a flop. But the first round clearly went to Liverpool.

A Tale of Two Tynes

2011-02-05T10:17:00.000-08:00

Whoa. Just watched the Newcastle-Arsenal game and I am stunned. Not only one of the biggest come-backs ever but what a completely bifurcated game. Arsenal was up three goals in the first ten minutes and took a 4-0 lead into the locker-room at the half then coughed it up in the second. There is plenty to talk about with this one, especially as it relates to Arsenal's title chances. Diaby's red will keep him off the pitch for a few games, the two dropped points as they wait for United to play Wolves, and perhaps most importantly the mental impact it has on a team that is seen as fragile to begin with.

But what is most noteworthy to me is how both halves of this game, in completely different ways, seems to have validated Newcastle's surprising decision to sell Andy Carroll in the dying moments of last month's transfer market. It seemed to catch people off guard and the fact that they didn't have time to bring in a replacement made it look kind of awkward. But when you think about what a club can do with 35 million pounds in the coming summer market you have to admit the final judgment on this one has to wait.

The first half hinted at how Newcastle should spend the bulk of the bounty: shoring up the defense. Williamson and Coloccini were absolutely awful and as bad as it sounds they were lucky to concede as few goals as they did. In pace, placement, and technique they looked like they didn't belong in the Prem. The fullback positions were spared that kind of embarrassment simply because they weren't targeted as much. And although it is a lesser priority I do think Newcastle would benefit from another man to run down balls in the midfield. Trading a few extra goals that would come from Carroll in order to fortify the defense may well be the way to go.

In the second half the club proved it could score without the departed striker. Yes two of them were penalties but Newcastle's work in the attacking end produced them, along with a few other chances that came close. The squad is not full of glamour names but the midfield with Nolan and Barton can create offense and Jonas provides a great cross and gives them a bit of balance on the wing. I will admit the strike corp is a bit thin but when looking at the big picture; how they can get offensive contributions from other places and how weak they are in the back, summer priorities should be clear.

Copa Lib Play-In

2011-02-02T18:03:00.000-08:00

Just caught the second half of the Deportes Tolima vs Corinthians Copa Libertadores play-in. The first leg was a nil draw in Brazil so the Colombian squad secured their place in the group stage with the 2-0 win. Two things stood out. First, there are a lot of very, very good players on the Tolima squad. Wilder Medina is a name I'd heard before and vaguely remember seeing him in previous international tournaments. Also Danny Santoya impressed me with his runs and the finish on the first goal. I forget his name but the right midfielder had some really good moments. And Silva, the goalkeeper, was the man of the match and although this is the only time I've seen him play he seems like a very complete GK.

The second thing I noticed was... .Ronaldo! Yes, Ronaldo "Ate All The Pies" was in action. I knew he was at Corinthians but seeing him lumber around a pitch is one of those sights that takes a moment to process and acknowledge is really happening. One of the broadcasters called him "el gordo" then quickly added "with full respect" which was nice of him. Then his partner chimed in, "of course, after all he is one of the biggest of all time". But all kidding aside on technique he can still put some fear into opponents.

A little tidbit I picked up listening to the broadcasters: This is the first time a Brazilian team has been eliminated from the Copa Libertadores in the play-in stage.

Copa Del Rey Final Set

2011-02-02T16:39:00.000-08:00

The silver lining to being buried under, or more accurately frozen under, a severe winter storm is that work is canceled and if you get the cleaning up out of the way you can watch some midweek games you would otherwise miss. Unless it is a game I really, really have to see I don't watch games on tape delay or Tivo so I didn't think I was going to see either of the Copa semis. But I did! And a few minutes of the Liverpool - Stoke City Prem match. The Cannibal of Amsterdam got off on the right foot with a nice finish for the second goal in a 2-0 win.

But the big story- Real Madrid vs Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey Final on April 20th. Real won a fairly comfortable 3-0 aggregate victory over a good Sevilla team while Barcelona's mostly reserve line-up put another 3 on Almeria for an 8-0 aggregate stomping. Any time these two teams get together there is a certain magic about it. Add in that silverware is on the line in a winner take all and it gets better. Take into account the massive egos involved and it goes up another notch. Factor in the best player in the world versus the second best and it is even sicker. And then on top of all this consider that less than a week earlier, on April 17th, they will meet in a league clash at the Bernabeu that may well decide this season's Spanish Champions. Of course with Madrid trailing by more than 3 points there is a chance Barcelona will actually claim the title on their rival's home ground. That could make for a truly epic battle for the Copa Del Rey.

I think you are starting to see some signs of unrest in Mou's Madrid. The friction with players that are seen as Real insiders, the more or less public spat with Valdano, the sniping at the way the organization has been run in the recent past, more visible frustration than we are use to seeing from the Special One... I am not saying his days at the Bernabeu are numbered or that he has to win major silverware but I do think this game could be a key moment in his tenure at Los Merengues.

Interesting note: unless something cataclysmic happens next summer's Spanish Super Cup will feature these two teams. Could make a very ho-hum two-legged trophy very exciting.

Fernando Torres to the Bridge

2011-02-01T10:55:00.001-08:00

As rumors of Fernando Torres moving to Chelsea intensified over the weekend and people debated whether Luis Suarez was brought to Anfield to partner or replace El Nino I had one of those "whoa" moments. I realized that for the first time I can remember one of the elite or so called "big 4" was considering selling a superstar to another of the English super clubs.

I left for work yesterday after reading a report in the Spanish press that assured the deal was done. At lunch I saw the deal went through. And when I got home I was surprised to learn Liverpool spent about 35 of the 50 million they got for Torres on Newcastle striker Andy Carroll.

The notion of someone like Fernando Torres being sold to Chelsea was awkward at first but in a cold analysis it made sense. Liverpool are not title contenders, in all likelihood will not be in the Champions League next year, see genuine but limited interest in the Europa League, and had an elite player who's value will never likely be higher. It might hurt to see him in a rival's colors, but their was logic to the move.

BUT... they managed to bungle the move. Luis Suarez, who they bought for a reasonable price off Ajax, is a proven striker who averaged nearly a goal a game during time in Amsterdam. For the immediate future he should be enough to round out the Liverpool attack. The acquisition of Andy Carroll was a squandering of a historic transfer fee. When added together the two strikers cost more than Fernando Torres did. It can be argued that 2 is better than 1 and Torres has certainly been injury prone but as a neutral observer Liverpool look clumsy and rudderless.

Andy Carroll now becomes the most expensive English player of all time (!) and has scored a grand total of 11 Premiership goals. He has one cap with the Three Lions. He has never won any major silverware (unless you count the Championship last season). It may sound like I am writing him off. I am not, Andy Carroll is an extremely talented striker with phenomenal instincts and at 22 he is likely to improve. But 35 million pounds is too much for him, particularly at a time when his addition to the squad has such a limited ceiling. Liverpool currently sit 7th, 9 points out of a CL spot. Even with Carroll a finish above fifth seems like a fantasy. And the buy came at a time when there were legitimate concerns at leftback and a need to beef up the midfield. Both needs could have been addressed for half what they paid Newcastle.

El Sevillaso!

2010-08-24T16:31:00.000-07:00

For the second time in a week Sevilla was knocked out of a competition by an aggregate score of 5-3. But the embarrassing loss in Andalucia looks light years worse than the drubbing they took at Camp Nou over the weekend. The 4-3 loss at the hands of an inferior Braga side could have very real consequences for Sevilla.

While taking a 3-1 lead into the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup and then watching it nullified as Sevilla was torn to shreds by Barcelona must have stung, there really wasn't much more than bragging rights at stake. The Spanish Super Cup is essentially a one-off trophy for the purpose of bragging rights and start of the season festivity. It is not at the top of any teams history and winning it does not come with any tangible benefits for the season. And besides, Barcelona are arguably the best team in the world and there aren't many teams that could have withstood the battering they laid on Sevilla.

Missing out on the Champions League at the hands of Braga is a different story altogether. When Manolo Jimenez was shown the door last spring after three years on the job it was strongly rumored to have been because the club could not afford to miss the CL in 2010-2011 and it really did not look like they were going to make a serious run for a top four finish. This is not meant in the casual or figurative sense like "we can't afford to keep losing", but literally, in the sense the club has serious financial commitments it is hazardously close to not meeting. Antonio Alvarez did a great job of salvaging the domestic campaign and brought home the Copa del Rey as an encore. But that could be irrelevant in the very near future after they got bumped from the premiere European competition. As of now the club is saying it is not the time to make a change, and it makes sense to let tempers cool. But when a clearly more talented team with more experience and resources loses both legs of a play-off, something will likely change.

The reason I am interested in this beyond the mild shock of seeing a Champions League neophyte knock off a side we have come to regard as solid and professional, is because a possible firesale in Sevilla could change the dynamic of other races in Europe. Over the summer Madrid openly courted Jesus Navas and appears to have been rebuffed under the premise that Sevilla needed him to get into the group stage, or possibly further. Now he is cup tied and his usefulness to a team like Real Madrid is limited. The same can be said for Luis Fabiano who was linked to a big money move to Marsielle (which seemed suspicous to me but apparently there was some truth to it), if a big offer comes in he could still move but teams that can afford those kinds of players are generally fighting on multiple fronts. This squad is loaded with other good players that could be missing pieces somewhere. Guys like Diego Capel, Perotti, Negredo, and Kanoute. That might be the silver lining if Sevilla's financial situation is indeed dire: they have devalued their chips in a failed gamble, but still have enough of them to soften the blow.

Internazionale 2010-2011

2010-08-20T14:34:00.000-07:00

Inter begins the Benitez era tomorrow when they face Roma for the Supercoppa. I was a big fan of Mourinho and was sad to see him go, but there is a lot of hope for this season. There are six potential trophies on the line and Inter could join Barcelona as the only team to lay claim to a Hexachampionship.

Over the last few days I have been thinking about how things have changed, as a fan of the club, during recent years. My first memories are of the late 80s/early 90s teams. Most of the Italian football I watched at the time was on the RAI Italian channel in northern New Jersey. It was something in those dark days for football in the USA but in a good season you got maybe 12 games. Now every game is available and you can follow the team as much or as little as you like and be very much in the loop.

I have vague memories of that league title when Serie A was unarguably the elite league in Europe. But for more than a decade and a half after that Inter was a solid and respectable team but not a powerhouse like AC Milan, Real Madrid, or Juventus. The 2006 title felt strange and not altogether real as it was awarded in the courts. There was a sense of the inevitable when they won it again the next year with a depleted league due to the match fixing scandal. By the time they claimed legitimate titles in 2008, 2009, and 2010 it somehow felt old hat. And looking back that is a very strange dynamic. Being title starved for most of the years I supported the team, missing the true euphoria of getting there, and then having it feel old and worn.

Winning the Champions League in May was special and the way in which the team did it (beating Chelsea and Barcelona then having announce to the world they were going to win and never having the outcome of the final in doubt) was a great moment. I remember thinking the treble might be the apex of my time as an Inter supporter, and I am okay with that. What feels a little bizarre is that Inter has become a legitimate European superpower but have done so seemingly through a warp zone. To make a premiership comparison it might be like Spurs being where United in five years. I am glad they are winning enough where it is not treated as a rarity, it is just strange.

Internacional New Champions

2010-08-18T20:10:00.000-07:00

For the fourth year in a row a Brazilian team made it to the Copa Libertadores final. For the fourth year in a row they had the second leg at home. But for the first time in those four years they actually lifted the trophy. Internacional beat Chivas 3-2 for a 5-3 aggregate win. As in the first leg Inter were the far (and I mean like FAR) superior side. The scoreline was charitable to the visitors. Nearly without exception Inter's bouts of possession were filled with purpose, creativity, and ideas. For much of the game Chivas looked content with not losing the ball in a dangerous area and pumping it forward blindly. I will admit Chivas' first goal was a highlight reel worthy thing of beauty, but over the 90 minutes they didn't belong on the same field.

Arellano's late two-footed mugging of Andres D'Alessandro near the end brought a deserved straight red. Terrible, terrible tackle.

A few random thoughts:

This is the first time I can remember rooting for a Brazilian team of any kind at club or country level. The manifest lunacy of allowing Chivas to skip qualification AND the group stage and start in the knockout rounds is something that angers me to a level I can not put into words.

I wonder if Internacional de Porto Alegre realize their initials are I.P.A.? They should use that as a moniker, if the abbreviation flies in Portuguese.

There is a good chance (let's be honest it is nearly inevitable) that Internazionale will play Internacional for the Club World Cup this coming December. Whoa! Inter v Inter. Spy v Spy. Argentines and Brazilians v Argentines and Brazilians.

I know it was probably logistically impossible but having the semis and the final after the world cup really killed the stoke for me this time. I usually love the Copa Lib but that is something they should really try to avoid. I am aware it has happened before but I still think it sucks.

That is all.

Ready, Set, Prem!

2010-08-13T13:08:00.000-07:00

The Community Shield is behind us, less than three weeks remain in the transfer window, and tomorrow the Premiership returns! Last year we saw a more competitive league at the high end of table than in recent years and I suspect the same is in store for 2010-2011. There will be interesting story lines throughout the season and I believe relegation, European qualification, and the title will all go down to the last round or two. Here are some random thoughts/predictions of mine as we sit on the brink of the new season:

Chelsea won't repeat-
Despite not clinching the title until the last match of the season Chelsea were clearly deserved champions. Against the rest of the "big 4" they were a combined 6-0 with an impressive goal differential. They also set a single season goal record. And yet I think they will relinquish the crown this year. Joe Cole and Michael Ballack's exits were relatively minor and the acquisition of Ramires and Yossi Benayoun along with a return to fitness of Michael Essien may well cancel them out. A more problematic personnel move is the late departure of Ricardo Carvalho for Real Madrid. This leaves Chelsea's central defense exposed. John Terry is not the player he was even two years ago, Alex has yet to prove himself a 38 games a year defender, and there does not appear to be much depth. Ivanovic is probably the best of the backline at Stamford Bridge.

But title runs have been made with similar defenses. The real reasons I think Chelsea will have a very hard time repeating are A, priorities, and B, age. They just won their 3rd Premiership title in 6 seasons but have never won the Champions League/European Cup. Chelsea supporters and ownership alike have their sights set on that title and given they have demonstrated their domestic power over the last half dozen years it would make sense for the focus to be on Europe. Add to that Ancelotti's proven success in the Champions League and the feeling he was brought in more or less with that goal in mind and the priorities seem evident.

Drogba, Anelka, Lampard, and Terry are among the players over 30 on the roster. It is always tough to say at what point exactly a player's career passes its peak and begins to its descent but I have a feeling for at least some of these guys that point is dangerously close. Consider that on top of the 4 fronts the squad is fighting on Chelsea had more players at the World Cup than any other club in Europe. Didier Drogba, the prem's golden boot last season, has had two unrelated surgeries since lifting the trophy in May and also played not one but two international tournaments since New Year's. The demonstrated drop in quality from Terry and Anelka over the last year can not be ignored.

Chelsea are still one of the best teams in England and could well left one or more trophies this coming season. I just don't think they have the depth, fitness, and ability to go through the grueling 38 match season and come out on top.

How Good is Rooney, Does it Matter?
Wayne Rooney was head and shoulders above the rest of the league last season. Can he do it again? Everyone knows he led United in goals and the club's second highest source of offense was opposition's own goals. They have had a modest off-season and although Javier Hernandez and Tom Cleverly looked good in pre-season this squad is not nearly as talented as the Rooney-Ronaldo-Tevez version that won the double a few years back. So the big questions are can Wayne Rooney repeat what he did last season? And if not, are there other guys in the team that can pick up his slack? I tend to think the answer to both questions is no, but we will see.

Beware the Citizens-
I am going to go out on a limb and pick Manchester City to win the Premiership this season. They made a marked improvement last season and despite coming up just short of the Champions League have returned to a place they have not been in many, many years. With much of the same squad in tact and the continuation of Mancini I like their chances. What it really comes down to is that Manchester City have the talent, resources, and schedule in their favor.

A team with a play money budget like City will always be the focus of rumors but even the Balotelli (potentially volatile) signing is their last I don't think an objective look at their roster can say they are second best to anyone in the Prem. Two solid goalkeepers, an improved backline with an attacking option at fullback, a deep and talented midfield, and a strike corps that can score in different ways. And if anything is missing they can always go shopping again in January.

What I think may well be the difference maker is a combination between the new (and stupid) 25-man rule and City's priorities. Missing out on the Champions League may be a blessing in disguise. Where Chelsea will make that their number one goal, City is free to focus on the domestic title. No one will begrudge an alternative line-up for a Europa League match, and although the FA Cup is important, if a match in February has to be sacrificed to ensure the best shot at winning a key league game most City supporters will understand. The new squad restrictions will force teams to make decisions and sacrifices they are not used to. If Mancini handles it properly it will be to his team's advantage.

Newcomers-
I think Mauro Boselli will have a good first season at Wigan. The sale of Jason Scottland indicates Roberto Martinez is content with him and Hugo Rodallega as the primary options up front. I have seen him play a lot for Estudiantes and think he is coming in a little under the radar. Very technically gifted. Maybe a bit on the small side for the Premiership but very intelligent player and lethal with both feet as well as in the air. 12 goals or so I think is realistic.

The other new guy I see putting in a lot of goal is Maroune Chamahk. I know this won't be a surprise but for a guy whose name was thrown around so much last year his move to the Emirates was surprisingly quiet. And coming in he doesn't seem to be getting too much attention. Having him up top gives Arsenal something they have lacked for years aside from the occasional streak when Bendtner gets hot. With Cesc staying for at least one more season I think Chamakh will hit the ground running.

Breakout-
Daniel Sturridge at Chelsea. Gifted and able young striker in an aging group of attack players. He probably wont be first choice but will get plenty of opportunities.

Relegation-
Predicting failure and ruin is not really fun but I think Wolves, Blackpool, and West Brom will be in the Championship next year.

Intriguing Situation-
Who is in goal for Manchester City? Joe Hart and Shay Given are probably both in the top 5 goalkeepers in the Premiership and they happen to be on the same team. Who gets the job? Does the other guy go on loan? Very interesting as the month goes on.

Spurs-
I think will make it out of the group stage of the Champions League. I am not a Spurs supporter but I have a soft spot for this group and wish them well.

First Half of Quarters... so huh?

2010-07-01T20:04:00.000-07:00

Two big ones tomorrow. Hopefully I will be able to duck out of work around 11 and catch the second half of the Netherlands vs Brazil game then the whole afternoon game. What I think may happen:

Netherlands vs Brazil-
One of the handful of games we get in every World Cup that get the "this could be the final" tag stamped on it. And rightly so. A terrifyingly efficient and sound Brazilian side that has shown when it is necessary can still be Brazilian. Much more defense and counter than we are used to but only a fool would discount them as serious contenders. This Dutch team is the best of what we have grown to expect from them. They employ a range of tactics and systems but overwhelmingly these are designed to attack. It can be said they arrive at a South American style through European planning.

I am going to side with the Netherlands on this one, which might be a bit of an upset although not much. I foresee a high scoring game with the final score in the 3-2 neighborhood. The difference maker for me is the spontaniety of Arjen Robben. With Brazil's center-halves as solid a pair as can be found in this tournament an attack consisting of the effective yet known industry of Snjeider and Kuyt supporting RVP would probably be contained. But with Robben who has a seemingly endless bag of tricks jumping in to join those three players the Dutch have a dangerous set of options. His ability to run up the right side then cut in and put dangerous shots on goal from 25+ yards will be key. To be fair Holland's defense is a question but this Brazilian team does not push the issue for 90 minutes the way most of the previous incarnations have. That is okay against North Korea and Chile, but it might not work this time. The De Jong/Von Bommel duo shielding the backline may be enough to smother the attack, particularly of Holland go up early.

Uruguay vs Ghana-
Kind of a feel-good match up. Ghana are the lone African team in the first WC held on the continent. They came in minus their best player in Michael Essien and had a very difficult group. Uruguay have not been this far in decades and aside from a few guys are not the collection of stars some of the others in the quarter final stage are.

Although there may be intangible factors that push the Black Stars over the top I see Uruguay winning this rather comfortably. Ghana are sound and solid and not a team that beats itself, but they are also limited. Until their 2-1 win over the USA in the round of 16, all their goals had come from penalty kicks. They just don't have the firepower to shake a solid defense. And that is what Uruguay is. Their fullbacks and center-halves are very tight and one thing Uruguay has always been known for is a tenacity in the midfield that makes their job even easier. That can be expected tomorrow. Then there is something that sets this team apart from the Uruguay of the 90s and 2000s: exceptional skill up top. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are two of the most feared strikers in the world. Cavani is perhaps a notch below them but he is incredibly talented and willing to do the work asked of him. As a triad they will test Ghana in ways they have not been tested this entire tournament (including by Germany).

At both ends of the pitch I expect Uruguayan dominance. Their defense will be unimpressed by Ghana's attack and their attack players will impose their will on the Africans. 3-1 or so.

Two Good Ones Today

2010-06-27T05:59:00.000-07:00

So the US went out of the 2010 World Cup in the round of 16 and the journey is over. I (along with anyone who has even casually watched the team over the last few months) said the key was to not concede early... and 5 minutes in three American defenders were unable to contain a basic Ghanian stroll down the center of the park and it was 1-0. The US played well but not great for most of the rest of the game and it was just to pull even on Donovan's penalty in the second half. In my opinion there was not much of a difference between the two teams. The Americans had slightly more quality chances and Ghana probably played a tighter game in the middle of the park by a slim margin. The difference is in the details. Ghana took their goals when opportunities presented themselves and the US didn't. Jozy Altidore I thought was particularly mediocre and it is a shame because some of the guys playing alongside and behind him generated chances that could have changed the outcome. Putting Ricardo Clark in the starting 11 then pulling him off for Maurice Edu in the first half is not Bob Bradley's finest hour either. It was sad to see them go but in a way I am thankful the US went out like that and not on another blown call or by goal difference in the group stage. That could have stifled the momentum of the game in this country.

Two interesting matches today. The first is England vs Germany, two traditional powerhouses of European football. 44 years ago England "won" their only World Cup by beating the Germans in London. Since then international football has been more kind to Germany as they won the title twice and came runners-up another three times while the Three Lions never again reached the championship match. A 1990 semi-final between the two was decided on penalty kicks, and twenty years later here we are. Personally I think England have been one of the real let-downs of the tournament and although this might not be the German machine of the 80s I expect them to win comfortably (on the field if not the scoreboard).

Argentina faced Mexico at this round last time and won a 2-1 overtime thriller on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal. The two teams aren't exactly rivals but there are plenty of storylines. In addition to the Maradona-Messi stuff that comes out whenever Argentina play we have the manager's verbal assault on former Mexican manager Ricardo La Volpe, the inclusion of naturalized Argentine Guille Franco in the Mexican squad, Gio Dos Santos vs Messi, and the fact it is not only a rematch of four years ago but Argentina also thrashed Mexico in a Copa America semi-final in 2007. Mexico have a lot of spirit and they deserve credit for knocking out France and surviving a group stage with the host nation. However the gulf in class here is tremendous and in all likelihood Argentina will take this one by at least two goals. 3-1 sounds about right to me.

The Biggest USA Game Ever, For Now

2010-06-26T06:20:00.001-07:00

It is not a stretch to say we are less than twelve hours away from the biggest US national team game ever. And if they win of course that honor will be passed on to the quarter final match. Certain matches have garnered a legacy with the passage of time: 1-0 over England, the Port of Spain qualifier, last year's Confed Cup win over Spain. But this is that rare moment where achievement, expectations, visibility, and excitement come together in one game.

And the USA will be taking on Ghana as the result of... probably the most important goal in the national team's history. If Landon Donovan had not scored in the dying moments against Algeria there was a perfect storm for a soccer backlash in this country just waiting to be unleashed. Despite all the curiosity and interest from casual fans and the never-watched-soccer-before types I am convinced the fervor for the game would have been crushed. The "referees always want the US to lose" "Why doesn't the game end at 90? Wait why doesn't it end after the added time, like on the second?" "I don't understand why a game can end tied..." and don't even breach the topic of the drawing of lots (which to be fair is an absurdity). But all that vanished as Donovan scored a dramatic winner that stoked casual interest even further.

After following most of the game online from my desk at work I took my lunch early around the 60th and went into the cafeteria where I found one casual 50-something woman watching the game. Soon after I sat down other people began to trickle in. By the 80th minute there were probably a dozen people. Many of them were asking basic questions about the game, genuinely interested in answers, and I remember thinking this is probably happening all over the country. How does offsides work, what about substitutions, what if there is a tie, etc. By the time Landon Donovan scored that goal there were at least 25 people (of them maybe 7 real fans of the game previously) packed around the TV urging the team on. Sometimes epic moments recede into nothing as time goes by, but I feel like this might be a watershed moment for this game in the USA.

As for USA vs Ghana: I feel there are two keys to this game for the United States. The first is don't concede early. They did it against England and Slovenia and only the fortune of the crossbar prevented it from happening again in the last group stage match. Add to that the early goals in the friendlies leading up to the tournament and a dangerous vulnerability becomes apparent. Yes they have bounced back against England and Slovenia and that speaks to the grit of the team, but your luck runs out at some point. Going a goal down early in a must win game is not insurmountable but sooner or later the US will be facing a team capable of shutting the game down and dictating terms.

The second is to be patient. This Michael Essien-less Ghana squad suffer from a lack of offense. They tallied a mere two goals during the group stage and both came from spot shots. A team that relies on penalty kicks to get through group play may do it, but they must realize the reality changes once they enter the knock-out round. It would seem the longer the game remains scoreless, or if the USA grabs the lead, the more Ghana will step out of its comfort zone and commit men forward. At that point the USA will begin to have legitimate counterstrike opportunities.

My picks for today: Uruguay 2-0 South Korea. USA 2-1 Ghana.

Enjoy!

Holders Bow Out and Great Game Tomorrow

2010-06-24T19:53:00.000-07:00

Italy became only the fourth defending world champion to go out in the group stage after a 3-2 loss to Slovakia. One of the things we've come to expect at international tournaments is for the Italians to start slow, have the whole world say they are old tired and sloppy, barely squeak out of the group, then turn it on and go deep. 99% of the people saying they picked Slovakia to win are full of it. It was stunning to see the Italians go out like that, but in retrospect the team selection before the World Cup and Lippi's tactics in the three games were woeful. I don't think there is an example of a coach getting it so right in one world cup and getting it so wrong the next time around.

The mood around the squad was somber with Lippi fully accepting all the blame for the debacle and Gattuso being being particularly sober in his comments about this being an opportunity to reassess the whole of Italian football. As tough as it must be for Italy to face this at least they are not limping out the way their opponent in the final four years ago is. The French made unqualified fools of themselves in South Africa both on and off the field. 1 point in a group with Mexico, Uruguay, and South Africa is shameful. To send a starting striker home, have the team boycott practice, a starting fullback refuse to play, then have the coach storm off without shaking hands with his counterpart make it perhaps the worst display at a world cup in recent memory.

The good news for these two national teams at a time of sorrow is that the future is actually pretty bright for both of them (or can be at least). They both know who their next manager will be. Laurent Blanc for France and Cesare Prandelli for Italy. Both very competent guys who will add a new element and inject their teams with a sense of change that is desperately needed right now. And, countries are blessed with talented pools of young players that would be a dream in other parts of the world. Although France is probably slightly better positioned for Ukraine-Poland 2012, by the next world cup and the following Euro I suspect Italy will be back amongst the big guns.

Tomorrow pre-tournament favorites Spain play for their lives in the final group stage match against Chile. The Chileans themselves aren't assured of passage despite having won their first two games, so this will be for all the marbles. I am intrigued by this match for many reasons. The stakes, the players, the managers, etc. Despite mediocre results Spain have dominated their opponents and only dismal finishing kept them from three points against Switzerland and a blow-out against Honduras. Will tomorrow be the day the strike force finally clicks, or the day the wasted opportunities send them home? I honestly don't know.

On the other side I can't wait to see how Chile approach this game. The press is reporting that Marcelo Bielsa intends to take on Spain the way they did their previous opponents: with pressure, pace, attack, and in a peculiar 3-3-1-3 formation. This might be true but I will believe it when I see it. Against a Swiss side built on patience and containment that approach made sense, and against a Honduran team hanging on for dear life from the first minute of the first game there really wasn't an option. But against a high possession team with precise passing and a stable of dangerous attackers, being that aggressive might be a suicidal strategy. Add to that the fact that Chile need only a draw to win the group, and the choice Bielsa must make is a monumental one.

Hope it is as good as the build up, then on to the knock-out rounds!

Thoughts After Game 2s

2010-06-21T19:42:00.000-07:00

It is scary how fast the World Cup flies by. After years of anticipation it really does feel like a blink and you missed it kind of thing. Crazy to think we are on the eve of the last group stage matches. Here are some thoughts on the second games:

Afri-still-cant-
Last week I said I was not surprised by the African let downs, and the second games did nothing to change my opinion. It is sad in a way but not at all unexpected. Some teams got tough draws, some clearly aren't on the level, and some just didn't have things break their way. I feel kind of bad for Cameroon who I thought played a great game against Denmark and probably deserved a draw. That is the thing about tournaments like this: one bad day like they had against Japan, and you are on the brink of going home.

And then there are two clear illustrations of one of the big things I think is missing from African football: an awareness of how big the moment is. The first example came in the Greece-Nigeria game last week. Up a goal about a half hour in a Nigerian player reacted to a normal slightly-below the radar bit of antagonizing body language by kicking the Greek player in the groin, about ten yards from the referee. There is no scenario imaginable in which this doesn't lead to a red card. On ten men for an hour the Nigerians conceded the equalizer and eventually Greece took the lead. It is not a stretch to say 11 on 11 Nigeria could have won. The second example was the feigning injury of the Ivorian player after he ran into Kaka. The Brazilian was already on a yellow and despite his elbow glancing the opponents chest the Ivorian clutched his face and squirmed in faux-pain until the referee sent off Kaka. This is bad because A) the whole world knows your a creep and B) It was in the dying minutes of a 3-1 loss and even then (before Portugal's 7-0 hammering of the Norkos) the Ivorians had to know their only chance at qualification was if Brazil stomped on Portugal in the final game. Much more likely with Kaka than without.

Refereeing-
I spoke too soon when I applauded the job officials have done so far. The second round of games saw a bunch of bad calls but the one inescapable gaffe was the nullification of the USA's dramatic go-ahead goal late in the game versus Slovenia. Replays from every angle show it was a good goal. No fouls, not off the hand, clearly over the line, clearly on-side. There really was no reason to wave it off. And that is where this goes from bad call to one of the all-time worst. Referees make wrong decisions all the time, it is a part of the game. But to make a decision like this and give absolutely no explanation to anyone is beyond comprehension. When it is obviously a goal (if anything the US had two legitimate appeals for a penalty) and you say otherwise... let the world know why. If you are defending a call that turns out to be wrong, you have made a highly visible mistake. If you say "it is not a goal because it is just not, because I said so," your name will live on in infamy and you give life to the not-so-hard-to-encourage conspiracy theorists.

South America-
Through the second round of games South American teams have been the dominant force of the tournament. Of the ten games played the CONMEMBOL nations have piled up 8 wins and 2 draws for an impressive 26 points from a possible 30. The style of play has been as convincing as the statistics. And think about this: as of now Argentina has as many goals as Italy (2) Spain (2) France (0) and England (1) combined. The abundance of European based players in these squads ensures they are comfortable in a foreign setting far from home which may account for the good run of form, at least in part. Another thing is the level of commitment. Argentina and Brazil are always overflowing with talent but the two managers, say what you will about them, each picked 23 men they knew would give everything for the shirt. Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile lack no motivation and are all headed by coaches who are extremely thorough and creative. It is easy to kick a team while it is down but does anyone think a CONMEBOL country at this WC would find itself in France's position?

Accumulation-
One thing I think is an absolute detriment to this tournament is the accumulation rule. 2 yellows in the first 5 games lead to an automatic suspension. I understand they want the more sightly aspects of the game on display but this is just absurd. Especially when so much comes to interpretation. And if you are concerned with putting the best of the game on the world stage just look at Kaka's ridiculous suspension as evidence this approach doesn't work. Either make it 3 yellows for a suspension or wipe the slate clean after the group stage.

Bracket Overload Looming-
A lot can change over the next four days but we face the realistic possibility of a massive bracket overload. Without too much stretching and mmmmaybe scenarios we could see one side of the knock-out bracket include Germany, Brazil, Spain, Italy (I don't care how bad they look), and the Netherlands.

Looking forward to the rest of the week's action.

Thoughts After Game 1s

2010-06-16T19:37:00.000-07:00

Every team has now played their first game in the 2010 World Cup, and Uruguay and the host have just finished their second. Still very early in the tournament and patterns and story lines are yet to emerge, but here are some thoughts on the story so far:

Low Scoring-
This has to be the biggest storyline so far. The tournament is more than a dozen goals off the pace of the lowest scoring WC in this format. Things can change but the abundance of low scoring games can not be ignored. I see three factors:

First is the biggest one, in my opinion. Managers and players alike are petrified of making a mistake in the first game. We all know how difficult it is to qualify for the knock-out rounds after losing the first game and on such a huge stage no team wants to put itself at a disadvantage because they were over-eager early on. This has produced a defensive approach in many games.

Second is the ball. For all the talk of the Jabulani eating up goalkeepers (and to be fair it has happened) I think we all overlooked the difficulty players have in making shots dip with this new ball. By no means is this scientific but I have seen many, many long distance shots (particularly freekicks) sail way above the crossbar without even a hint of a drop in their trajectory. A lot of these look like the type of shots that would break sharply toward the ground in other games.

Third is the inescapable: it just hasn't happened. As much as everyone wants to groan about the smaller and middle-weight type teams playing it close to the vest the truth most of the high profile teams actually have attacked. Germany is exempt from criticism after its rout of Australia. But Argentina, Brazil, and Spain all played very aggressive opening matches. They had double digit shots, plentiful corners, decisive possession advantages, and committed men forward yet they only have three goals to show for it combined. Sometimes the ball just doesn't go in.

Good Refereeing-
We all trash the refs when they get it wrong, and they probably deserve it. But seventeen games into this tournament I have been struck by how many close calls they have gotten right. The Tim Cahill red was harsh, for sure, but that game was lost long before Australia went to ten men no matter what Pim V says. The only controversial call that had any real impact on a game may have been the disallowed Mexican goal in the opener.

Goal Keeping-
The Bad: I have been shocked so many goalies have played so poorly. Italy, USA, Slovenia, and Switzerland were all gifted the goals they scored by horrendous goalkeeping. When you think about it that means the goal total in this WC should be even more dismal. I just don't understand how guys like Green and Casillas can have lapses in concentration at such a big competition. Baffling.

The Good: Tim Howard and Vincent Enyeama both turned in superb performances. Howard played a huge role in the USA taking a point off England and Enyeama is the only thing that stood between Nigeria and a historic pasting at the hands of Argentina.

The Weird: I have never been sold on Memo Ochoa as an elite world class goalkeeper but I know a lot of people who are. Most of them are Mexican. And so it is intriguing to me that a) Perez got the nod over Ochoa against South Africa and b) Ochoa seems to be the third choice keeper going into tomorrow's game against France (per fox en espanol). Very odd.

Silent Stars-
In keeping with the low scoring theme: where are the golden boot front runners? Villa, Messi, Torres, Luis Fabiano, Higuain, Anelka, Rooney, Van Persie, and Cristiano Ronaldo have a combined zero goals. To be fair Diego Forlan tallied two this afternoon, but that was in his second game.

On a different note: Miro Klose's goal against Australia was his 11th in WCs, putting him only 4 behind Ronaldo (the fat one) for the all time record. He probably wont get there this time, but it is not impossible.

Africants-
As I have said many times I am just not a believer when it comes to African teams, club or country. Yes Africa produces elite players that thrive in the most competitive leagues, but that is where it ends. Since I was little I have heard that we are on the verge of an African explosion at a WC... I will believe it when I see it. And it doesn't like I will see it in 2010. The 6 African squads have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses netting them 5 out of a possible 21 points. Not so hot. And it is not just the numbers: their style of play has been lacklustre. The one exception is Ghana who should be commended for soldiering on without Michael Essien and positioning themselves well to advance. Despite not being too exciting in their 1-0 win over Serbia I thought Ghana were very organized and tactically sound.

Security/Weirdness-
It is impossible to know what South Africa is like without actually being there but I have been struck by how grossly unprepared they seem for this event. The Greek and Uruguayans have been robbed in their hotels. A group of Chinese journalists was carjacked. Other journalists have been robbed (although some of them may have gone off to places they shouldn't). There has been at least one laser pointer incident. Gabriel Batistuta was also the victim of an armed robbery. There have been a shocking amount of empty seats, AT THE WORLD CUP. There was a worker strike at a stadium following a game that required tear gas and riot police (not hooligans, stewards).

And then there is the absurd business of ejecting and jailing 30 girls from the Netherlands for wearing orange dresses. Players, journalists, and commentators robbed? You can never be totally safe. Attractive women in cute dresses? WHOA! whoa, whoa, whoa not on our watch, we have standards here...

Loser Most Likely to Make It-
Spain. Despite a humiliating start to the tournament they remain the best team in the group, perhaps in the entire field. Although they are now behind two teams who won their first opening game things aren't so bad. They have a gimme against Honduras and the two teams with points play each other next. Spain have a squad overloaded with talent and should put the ugly result behind them and move forward. What is really interesting is that misstep may result in a Brazil-Spain round of 16 match if either Chile or Switzerland take care of business.

My runner-up in this category is probably Denmark. Yes they looked over matched at times, but against Holland they aren't the only ones. Japan and Cameroon are winnable games for this team and I doubt either of those squads will be taking more than a point, if that, off the Netherlands.

Don't Get Your Hopes Up-
Slovenia. Was it luck, was it skill? Who knows but a win is a win and that is what they got against Algeria as Robert Koren put one in from just outside the penalty area. Unfortunately for Slovenia their two other opponents are a huge step up in quality and also split the points of their opening match. I hate to say "good job now you are going home" but I think a realistic analysis of the group still has England and the USA making it through.

Odds and Ends-
1. Good job New Zealand! I was super stoked to see the Kiwis grab a point on the late equalizer by Winston Reid. Every NZ'er I have ever met has been awesome and I really dig the spirit of this squad. They are very likely to lose the next two games but sometimes that is not the point. It was great to see them get something.

2. Carlos Alberto Parreira's screed against the referee after SA's loss to Uruguay was odd. Uruguay were clearly the better team and the game was not decided on a particular call. Seldom if ever do those kind of games produce tirades like that. Perhaps more importantly the big calls went for South Africa. A clear penalty was not called when Luis Suarez was struck in the face and a foul on Jorge Fucile merited a red card that was not given.

3. Something is up with Mexico. In addition the intrigue surrounding the goalkeeping situation I mentioned above something else came to light today: Rafa Marquez will be captaining the side against France tomorrow. From all indications Gerardo Torado, the player relinquishing the arm band, will be on the field again. I have no idea if this happens often but I can not remember a single instance where a team has changed captains during a World Cup. Injury or suspension forcing a deputy to take the captaincy yes, but not like this. Maybe it is nothing, but these two tidbits seem like publicly visible signs that all is not well in the Mexican camp.

Hope you are enjoying this as much as I am.

It Is Finally Here!!!! Thoughts on World Cup Eve

2010-06-10T18:08:00.001-07:00

It is less than a day away, my favorite sporting event of all time on earth is about to begin!!!

The World Cup kicks off tomorrow and while I won't be ducking out of work to watch the inaugural South Africa vs. Mexico game, through the magic of summer hour Fridays I will get to see Uruguay vs. France in its entirety without guilt/anxiety/excuses.

I filled out a bracket and I don't really want to say who I picked because it is who I think will win, not who I want. My final match pits two European teams who have never won against each other. I hope I am wrong.

As far as the Golden Boot goes... I have no idea who will win and am not going to make a serious prediction. But I will say this: If you are looking for a dark horse Lucas Barrios might be your guy. For the last 4 years or so he has scored at an astounding pace in several different countries. His haul in the Bundesliga this past season silenced those who thought his goal scoring record was the product of being a good player in average leagues like Mexico and Chile. He was just naturalized in Paraguay and received his first caps in the friendlies these past few weeks. He has 3 goals in 3 games and seems to be continuing his club form for his adopted country. Aside from goal scoring prowess the reason I think he might make a run for topgun is that Paraguay are in a group with Italy and Slovakia, where Barrios can get maybe a goal or two, but then he has New Zealand where there is a possibility of an offensive explosion. I also see Paraguay in the round of 16 at least. And I don't know what the hierarchy is in the Paraguayan side but Barrios has been a penalty taker for years and could notch a few that way.

Tomorrow's opening game will be interesting. Mexico is clearly a better team but the atmosphere will lift South Africa. I envision a game with many twists and turns, changes of pace and dominance, and an eventual draw. Probably 1-1.

For no real reason other than temperment and a hunch I think Uruguay will pull the first upset of the tournament tomorrow against France. Although a team that only squeaked into the World Cup by the narrowest of margins (and even then probably shouldn't be here) with well publicized internal strife is not the France of 4 years ago.

Enjoy!

On The Mou-ve? Let's Hope Not

2010-05-20T19:42:00.000-07:00

With the Champions League final less than 48 hours away the eyes are focused on Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. And the Bernabeu. And who might be the resident manager there next season, who also happens to be leading a team into the big game on Saturday. The story has circled over and over for months now and to anyone who is even remotely interested in football the reasons why Jose Mourinho makes sense as the next Real Madrid manager are evident. Since I am an Inter fan and independently of that have a strong dislike for Real Madrid and a strange affinity for The Special One (even from before he came to the San Siro) here are some reasons to hope he does not bolt for the dark side (I don't care if they wear white):

1. Too many fingers in the pot. Real Madrid is a universe of its own, and anyone who has ever managed there can attest to that. Mourinho, like those before him, would have to deal with several internal interests pushing their views on him. This is something you deal with if you are Manolo Pellegrini making the step up from Villarreal. If you are Jose Mourinho, an obsessive control freak with an elite resume, maybe it is not your thing.

2. Jorge Valdano. Mourinho and Valdano's hatred for each other is well known. It is not just a clash of strong personalities but a different view of the game. The fact that it got personal makes this a stumbling block, in my opinion. It would be simpler if Valdano were just a generic "adviser" in the upper ranks of the organization, but considering he was a legend at the club as both player and manager it wont be easy to push him aside to make Mourinho happy. Real Madrid are a club that place premium value on their icons and he is among the biggest of his generation. Raul even named his first son after him.

3. Style. Jose Mourinho cares about winning first, second, and third. There is nothing else. Sometimes his teams score lots of goals, sometimes they don't. Sometimes he parks the bus and cements it in place, other times he goes away to a tough ground up a goal and starts three strikers. His only philosophy is winning. Real Madrid are, and always have been, obsessed with playing a pretty and attacking style. This has always been a demand on their manager and players and with Barcelona playing the epitome of champagne football and using it to win titles, this will be an utmost priority at the Bernabeu. And to those who believe winning cures all ills consider the managers who have brought home trophies and lost their jobs at Real Madrid for lacking flair. Fabio Capello, Bernd Schuster, even Vicente del Bosque.

4. A shot at history. If Saturday turns out like I think and hope it will Mourinho will have a shot at (even more) glory if he stays at Inter. Because Inter are going for a treble Mourinho would be in a position to capture three more titles before the end of 2010. Spanish and European Supercups and the Club World Cup. Only Pep Guardiola has done it as a manager and The Special One would be the first to do so with an Italian club.

I know the most likely scenario is that the final is Mourinho's last game in charge of Inter but the points listed above have some substance to them.

Looking Back on Serie A

2010-05-18T18:14:00.000-07:00

As I did last week with the Premiership I am going to quickly revisit my pre-season thoughts on the Italian top flight, although this will be brief by comparison.

I accurately predicted that Inter Milan would retain the crown. If anything I was surprised the Scudetto race came down to the final round. Inter were clearly the best team in Italy and I think a preoccupation with their Champion's League campaign was to blame for dropping points against modest competition during the early months of 2010 and allowing Roma into the race.

Speaking of Roma... I said they would continue to fade from relevance and I was totally wrong. ALTHOUGH... that was with Spalleti still at the helm and in fact they were double digit points off the lead before the Tinkerman came in and turned things around. They deserve all kinds of credit for getting it together and when they return to Europe in the fall they might make some noise.

If I underestimated Roma I was too kind regarding Juventus. Their win against Inter not withstanding the entire season was a let down for the Old Lady. The Brazilian duo that made a splash when they signed over the summer had their ups and downs but the soft spots around the lineup were evident. For a club with a stable of strikers including names like Del Piero, Amauri, Iaquinta, and Trezeguet this team did not look particularly dangerous in attack for long stretches of time this season. Gigi del Neri bolted Genoa to take over in Turin this week. He has his work cut out for him, although not being in the Champs League might clear his plate a bit.

AC Milan finished in 3rd without posing a realistic threat for the title. Yawn.

Of the teams I thought could make a run for the play-in spot I totally missed Sampdoria. They really edged out Palermo, who I liked a lot, by two points. The Cassano-Pazzini combo has gotten all kinds of love and they deserve it, but a guy who did a lot to put Sampdoria in the position they are is Angelo Palombo. His contributious are a little more subtle and further from goal but he is a huge reason they are on the brink of the Champions League.

W/R/T player predictions I got one dead on, one totally wrong, and the third kind of eh...

Felipe Melo was a competent holding midfielder for Juventus and not to blame for their mediocre form, but he did not achieve the level of Cambiasso or Gattuso in years past. They got what they needed from him but I kind of thought he would destroy.

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar I thought would tear Serie A apart but he kind of blew it. The Dutchman netted 7 league goals in 11 starts and 14 appearances off the bench. Not terrible to be fair, but 7 in 25 is nowhere near what he did at Real Madrid and Ajax. KJH was given a reasonable chance to show what he could do by Leonardo and for whatever reason it just didn't click.

Javier Pastore was a huge success for Palermo. He came over as a teenager who had never played in Europe and by the middle of the season he was a key part of a Palermo squad that was in the race for Champion's League football until the last day of the season. Playing behind Miccoli and Cavani Pastore was able to implement his creativity in a league that is not always easy for those kind of players. He totalled 3 goals and 5 helpers in 34 appearances which is a pretty decent tally, but beyond that watching Palermo his contribution was apparent. Some faint rumors have him moving away from Sicily this summer but I think he is there for another year at least.

2009-2010 was fun. Let's hope Inter can finish it off on Saturday.

Prem Wrap III- The End

2010-05-12T19:41:00.000-07:00

This is it, no more premiership 2009-10 talk for now. The PitchItchy awards for the season:

Best Player- Wayne Rooney
If you just look at the goal tally maybe a case can be made for Didier Drogba but really there is no one in the conversation with Rooney. Every minute of every match saw Rooney make a superhuman effort to keep United in the hunt for the title. With the departures of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez there was plenty of slack to take up and Rooney did better than anyone could have asked. His 26 goals were second most in the Premiership but more important was how crucial it was to his team's success. Dimitar Berbatov was the next highest scorer at 12, which happens to me the exact amount of opposition's own goals United benefited from. Without Wayne Rooney Manchester United this season would have been more along the lines of Everton than a point off the title. He also put in some great performances in the Champions League.

Best Manager- Harry Redknapp
A lot of people mention Roy Hodgson and he deserves credit for sure, but in my opinion the best manager over the course of the league season was Harry Redknapp. He took a team that have made a home in the upper half but not quite elite part of the table and got them into the Champions League. Particularly impressive in a season where a pack of teams made legitimate assaults on fourth place. The consistency required of a side, and its manager, to maintain that level over 38 games is impressive. Add to this key wins like the decisive 1-0 away at City on the second to last match. Redknapp brought in Nico Krancjar when Luca Modric went down and he was an absolutely terrific fit. The departures of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent were barely felt. And his tinkering with Gareth Bale eventually turned him into one of the most exciting and effective young players in the premiership. There really is not much Harry Redknapp could have done better this season.

Pitch Itchy 11-

Joe Hart

A. Cole, Michael Dawson, Vermalean, Baines

Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard, Cesc Fabregas, James Milner

Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba

What This Season Meant:
The legacy of the 2009-10 season will be a shift in the balance of power away from England. In the run up to the season 3 of the true superstars in moved to new clubs and none of them were in the Premiership. Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic all migrated to Spain. Money, prestige, and glamour are one thing but on the field the change is evident as well. Domestically the Prem was won with the lowest point total in a while. As everyone knows the race for the last Champions League spot came down to the end and involved many clubs. These are healthy things for the game but they show that the elite clubs have come back to the pack a little bit. This is illustrated even better by the poor English showing in the Champions League. After completely dominating the competition in recent years and habitually claiming 3 of the 4 semifinal spots, English teams failed to go that far for the first time in nearly a decade. United and Arsenal fell in the quarters, Chelsea in the round of 16, and Liverpool hobbled out in the group stage.

Fortunately for the Premiership the level of play is still very high and more importantly (the Portsmouth and Hull blemishes aside) its clubs are on very solid ground compared to those in Italy and Spain. In those countries there are many, many problems lurking beneath the surface that may threaten the viability of the way business done in the next few years. I think we are entering a period of 2-4 years during which the true elite teams will be Barcelona and Real Madrid, but the balance will swing back to England in the not too distant future.

Europa League Final

2010-05-11T19:54:00.001-07:00

On the eve of the inaugural Europa League final I still have no idea why they changed the name of Europe's second tier international club competition. And it doesn't really matter. This edition is actually pretty attractive to me. I don't support either Fulham or Atletico Madrid, but I am glad to see those two teams in the final. There are several appealing things to each of them. They both live in the shadow of glamour clubs in European capitols, both make due with comparatively modest resources. Fulham has a history of welcoming Americans which I think is kind of cool and I truly enjoy watching Atletico's lethal duo of Sergio Aguero and Diego Forlan.

Sometimes it is difficult to see where a club is going and when you look back on a moment after some years have passed you see it in a totally different light. That said I feel like Atleti and Fulham are in very different places. Fulham arrive in the final after a grueling 10 months of qualifying, group stage, and knock-out rounds in addition to the two domestic cups and the intensity of the Premiership. And through it all I get the distinct feeling that Roy Hodgson has built something that can be sustained. A mixture of players that are likely to remain at the club and continue to move up the Prem's challenging rungs, even if it done in small steps.

On the other side is Atletico Madrid, a club that has flirted with the elites in Spain the last few season but has come to the realization it is not in the same orbit as Barcelona and Real Madrid. Their decline (although not a collapse to be fair) in performance this season both in Europe and in the league is due in large part to the thin squad they were able to afford. There are some superstars in the side but the roster is not as complete as you would expect from a team that has been in the Champions League the last two seasons. There is very much a sense that one or more of the Atletico's big names will be in a different shirt come August. This coming week in which they will contest a Europa League Final as well as a Copa del Rey might be the closing chapter on a good run. With the money one of their big guns can bring in (my guess is Aguero is the most likely) they can bring in a set of players around which to build a new core.

Although I haven't studied these teams closely I have a general sense of what will happen in Hamburg tomorrow. Fulham are disciplined and hardworking. Physical but with a considerable amount of skill with which they move the ball around. Schwarzer has had some bloopers in goal but in general he is solid and the defense in front of him do a good job. As of today it was uncertain whether Bobby Zamora and Damien Duff will play. If they do not Fulham's attack will suffer. The deal with Atletico is this: a lot of goals. They can score a lot of them, but concede a lot as well. There are times when some of the guys in the back pull it together but it is kind of a crapshoot.

Just for kicks I am going to say Atletico in a wild one 4-3.

Prem Wrap II- Predictions Revisited

2010-05-11T18:41:00.000-07:00

Last summer I wanted to do an extensive preview/prediction post on the Premiership but procrastination and a bunch of other stuff got in the way, which kind of happens a lot on this blog, so I quickly jotted down some thoughts. Here is how those predictions look at the end of the season:

Champions
I picked Chelsea to win the title and got this one right. You can go with the Blues on any given year and more or less have a 1 in 3 chance of being right, so it is not exactly a crystal ball situation but I think we should all be impressed by my having predicted they would lift the trophy more because they held steady while their rivals were weakened than because of any marked improvement. Considering it only took 86 points to win, lower than any of the last 3 seasons, my pick looks pretty savvy.

Top 4
I didn't do so well picking the rest of the Champs Leaguers. United were always going to finish up there. But I was totally shocked by Liverpool's drop in form. If I said if there was one of the big clubs falling out of the top 4 it would be Arsenal (though I doubted it) and that didn't happen. I also thought the most likely candidate to break into the elite stratum would be Everton and they wound up not even making the Europa League.

Relegation
I picked Portsmouth and two of the promoted clubs (Burnley, Wolves, and Birmingham). I also said the acquisition of Jozy Altidore and Alvaro Negredo would lift Hull out of danger thought I saw them in peril as the season began. About 8 hours after that post news came that the Negredo deal fell through and Altidore went on to more or less flop in the Prem. A correction on yesterday's post: Burnely will NOT be in the Europa League. The Prem's fair play spot has been given to a Scandinavian league.

Other Stuff
I thought West Ham would outperform Sunderland and that was a huge miss. I am shocked at how directionless and sloppy Zola's squad was at times this season. I don't know the amount of points off hand but I think they probably gave up at least 10 points they had sewn up by being careless and losing focus.

I tipped Wigan's Hugo Rodallega to have a breakout season and I think I was half right. The Colombian was Wigan's leading scorer with 10 goals including a highlight reel finish on opening day and a stoppage time winner later in the season. All in all a good campaign but his production really faded late in the season.

I predicted the top scorer would finish with at least 25 goals and this year's golden boot, Didier Drogba, in fact finished with 29. Wayne Rooney was runner up with 26. This is significant because last year's top scorer finished with 19. I win.

Prem Wrap Up I

2010-05-10T18:08:00.000-07:00

With all 2o teams in action simultaneously on Sunday the Premiership was the first of the elite European leagues to wrap up its season. Looking back it was a pretty good season for a neutral observer/general fan of the game. At this level there really aren't many shockers over the course of a 38 game season but there was enough drama and quality play to keep me interested. Here are some thoughts on the way things ended:

1. Chelsea are just champions and I think their margin of a single point over Manchester United is maybe a touch misleading. They won all 6 games they played against the so-called "Big 4", they set a club record for goals in a season, and they had the best goal difference by a wide margin. Ancelotti's triumph in his first season outside of Italy is impressive and in the likely event they win the FA Cup for the domestic double will minimize the pain of the getting bounced from Europe in the round of 16.

2. After United and Chelsea there really is a gap to the rest of the elite teams. On their day Arsenal and co. can run with anyone but they continue to lack the depth, stability, and consistency to take the points available game after game after game. This is as much a question of resources as it is of culture. The atmosphere present at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford is missing elsewhere.

3. The race for the final Champs League spot was fantastic, maybe even as engaging as the title pursuit itself. Although by game 37 it was down to a winner take all match between Manchester City and Spurs, for most of the season it seemed like 5 teams had a legitimate shot at 4th (those two plus Liverpool, Everton, and Aston Villa) and all played enticing football for stretches of the season. It is too early to tell but I think this season was not an aberration and the future will look more like the spring of 2010 than previous seasons.

4. The Portsmouth debacle is really sad. There really is not much to say other than a bunch of people in suits did really, really, really stupid things and the players on the field along with Avram Grant did an admirable job of playing on under terrible circumstances. Their relegation was inevitable but this is one of those things that bum me out about the game. It is really weird/awesome/funny/bizarre that in the same season Portsmouth were relegated and reached the FA Cup final AND Burnley were relegated by qualified for the Europa League.

Tomorrow I will be back to revisit my Prem Predictions from last summer.

Separation Wednesday

2010-04-14T20:49:00.000-07:00

We still have about a half dozen games to go in the big European leagues but I have a feeling what we saw today (and to be fair what may happen tomorrow) will go a long way toward deciding the fates of some clubs on the brink. Off the top of my head here is where I think there was some making or breaking:

England-
Arsenal spit the bit on the hard at White Hart Lane. They got a goal late to halve Tottenham's lead but this game was an occasion where the Gunners showed they did not have the core of a championship calibre club. Derby, yes. Good opponent, sure. Hostile environment, I guess. But still a team that really wants to lay claim to the title should have at the very, very, very least managed a draw. This leaves them six points back of Chelsea with four matches to play. Not impossible but it would take a miracle. To give the situation some perspective I never really thought they were a contender and am impressed they hung around this long. Arsenal are absolutely the "any given day against any given team (except Barcelona, wink)" but from the outset I thought they lacked the laser focus and concentration necessary to milk maximum points from the 38 league games. This might have proved it.

Everton and Aston Villa each took a point from a 2-2 draw that made their fading chances grow a bit darker. Everton will probably not be playing any sort of European football next season and where a win today could have given Villa some hope of a late assault on the final CL spot, it is all but gone.

Spain-
Barcelona have been extremely careful about saying the right thing and given their track record during Pep's tenure it would be a surprise if they started celebrating with 7 games to go. An impressive 3-0 win over Deportivo with some big names missing puts them one step closer. Assuming Real Madrid beat Almeria tomorrow there will be 18 points still in play and Barsa's magic number will be 15. Or it could be as low as 12. Looking at the fixtures left for both clubs, it seems a repeat is very likely.

On the opposite end of the match was the other kind of separation. Not even a month ago it looked like Deportivo had a realistic, if contested, shot at being in the Champions League next year. Now they look unlikely to even appear in the consolation tournament. 43 points is not going to cut it. A full 3 out of 8th spot.

Depor doesn't look so bad when you compare them to Atletico who lost to last place Xerez 2-1 and effectively forfeited qualification for Europe through the league. They have faced some challenges this season for sure but a team with the talent of Atletico and the pedigree of having been in the previous two CL's should be able to take care of business when they host Xerez. Very disappointing.

In all likelihood Xerez are going back down at the end of the season but you have to give them credit for mounting a spirited and gritty bid to stay up. They were looking like a candidate for worst Primera team of all time not too long ago and now they are only six points from safety. They probably won't make it but they can be proud of the effort they put in. It would have been easy to throw your hands up and quit but they didn't. And Malaga could put in a couple of duds, stranger things have happened.

Quarters' Second Half (lotsa math!)

2010-04-05T17:58:00.000-07:00

Here we are on the brink of finding out who are the last four standing in the best club competition ON EARTH. I love Champions' League weeks and this one is especially tight because the time zone difference will give us back to back live matches tomorrow. Inter visit Moscow at 12:30 NY time and then Barcelona host Arsenal right after that. Should be a great set of matches. This is what I see coming:

CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.

Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.

Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.

Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.

Quarters Half Done

2010-04-01T20:53:00.001-07:00

Math. Division. Of these things (and more) life is made. Interesting first legs for the most part.

99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.

The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.

Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.

Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.

Champions!!!!! Quarters!!!!!!!

2010-03-29T17:54:00.000-07:00

The quarters kick off tomorrow and I am super stoked. Here is what I think will happen in the first legs:

THE FRENCH QUARTER!!!!!!!
I see this being a tight one in both legs. Tomorrow's match is in Lyon and I think it will be a score draw, probably 1-1.

99 Part II
By any objective measure Manchester United are a better team today than Bayern Munich. Add to that the fact that Arjen Robben, a true difference maker for the Bavarians, will not play tomorrow and the possibility of them winning the home leg looks even more slim. To make things worse Martin Demichelis looks like he will play only 4 weeks after having his face rearranged by M. Ballack in a friendly but can not possibly be expected to perform as an elite center half with that mask on his face. I don't think it is a blowout, but I do see United netting multiple away goals and setting themselves up for a victory lap at Old Trafford. 2-1.

Barsa Arsenal (it ryhmes)
This is the best match up of the round. Two elite clubs that are routinely in the latter stages of the competition. Similar brands(*) of attractive football. A rematch of the 2006 Champions League final. For all of this I doubt it will be very close. They may play similar styles but Barcelona are in a class far above Arsenal. There is not a single position on the field in which Arsenal have an edge. This Barcelona team under Pep has made a habit of playing big in big games, something that can not be said of Arsenal in the last 5 years or so. What I think will surprise many people is the possession advantage Barsa will have, even tomorrow at the Emirates. Their ability to win and keep the ball is truly amazing. The way they will badger and pester Arsenal and force turnovers will be a key factor in deciding the game. The absence of Andres Iniesta will hurt, but I still see Barcelona winning the first leg 2-0.

Inter vs. CSKA Moscow
This one appears lopsided but any team that has made it this far belongs here. There is a slight danger of a let down for Inter after the multiple storylines of their epic triumph at Stamford Bridge. I don't read too much into their mediocre league form since that game. The goal at Inter this season is the Champions League. Mourinho's Inter are much, much, much better organized than Jimenez's Sevilla were and I don't see the kind of breakdowns that allowed CSKA to win in Andalucia happening at the San Siro. At the same time I think there are holes to exploit in the Russian back-line, particularly if two agile strikers like Eto'o and Milito have close support from an attacking midfield player. A tough game but Inter 2-0.

The Coaching Wheel Starts Spinning

2010-03-23T18:15:00.001-07:00

Sevilla gave up a late equalizer to lowly Xerez (who are actually looking alive lately, but way way way too late) today and by so doing sealed the fate of Manolo Jimenez. The Andalucians fired their coach following the third disapointing performance in seven days. Completely understandable, it just underscores how much of a rollercoaster coaching at the highest level can be. Rewind ten days and Manolo Jimenez is on the brink of taking Sevilla to a European quarter final for only the second time in the club's history. He has a 1-1 result in the bank with the crucial away goal from the first leg in Moscow and he has Luis Fabiano available for the second leg. The Russians come in and shock the world with a 2-1 win. Then they get spanked by Espanyol at the weekend and are fortunate to only lose 2-0. And now they give away two points to the worst team in the Spanish top flight, at home. When it pains it roars.

AS is reporting that the club have made contact with Luis Aragones. I could see how that makes sense. With Sevilla only a point back of Mallorca for the last Champion's League spot and only 3 points ahead of Bilbao and Deportivo (although they are on the slide too) time is of the essence and whoever is next should be on the sidelines this weekend.

Earlier today I had actually been speaking about Aragones with a friend, but for the Real Madrid job. Another name that popped into my mind is that of Laurent Blanc. With a very good chance of being at the helm of one of the last four clubs standing in Europe, as well as a realistic shot at a second consecutive French title, I think he might have the "it" factor that Madridistas crave so much. Add to that Zidane's role as a special aide to Florentino and the move looks very possible. Time will tell.

Speaking of the not-yet-vacant Real Madrid job: A guy who I think will not be the one is The Special One. In my opinion Mourinho will not be at the Bernabeu next year for 4 reasons:

1. I am an Inter fan and like him just where he is.

2. Jorge Valdano, Florentino's other right hand man and a Real Madrid icon, has a well known and long feud with Mourinho. I am not sure about Valdano but Mourinho does not seem to be the kind of guy to put something like that aside for the glory and prestige of the white shirt.

3. Mourinho is a borderline control freak (and I only say borderline because he wins enough to justify his actions) and Real Madrid is a club where many, many people want to put their stamp on the team.

4. Everyone knows he wants to work in England again. The Liverpool job is likely to come open over the summer and it is rumored Mourinho has always wanted to go there. It is also not inconceivable that Alex Ferguson retires within the next two years, opening up a second job in the Prem's top 4. Both of these suit Mourinho more than Real Madrid.

The Next Round is Set

2010-03-20T09:56:00.001-07:00

UEFA drew the match-ups for the quarter final round of the Champions League yesterday. Like with any tournament, much to speculate and debate over. I wish these games were coming up sooner, but I am excited all the same. For the first time in a long time it feels like Inter got a workable draw. And there is some intrigue, two finals rematches. And, in a not-that-awesome-way, I kind of foresee a Manchester United vs Barcelona rematch in the final at the Bernabeu. Here are some initial thoughts on the quarters, although my opinions will like change as kick-offs approach:

Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
It is hard for me not to see United progress to the semifinals from these two. On their day Bayern are a good team and probably deserve to be among the last eight standing but United's efficiency and pedigree in recent years make them a big favorite. The fragility of Robben and to a lesser extent Ribery, players that will be key to unlocking the United defense, is a big hindrance for Bayern. As of now I can see a draw in Bavaria and a United win at Old Trafford. As a replay of the classic 1999 Champions League final at the Nou Camp prepare to be assaulted by a never ending parade of stories about that magical night.

Lyon vs Bordeaux
The French Quarter. Yes I came up with that myself. No I do not see it getting old no matter how many times I use it in the coming weeks. Am I shocked that after half a decade with a French team in the last four of Europe this pairing assures a Ligue 1 team will go at least as fair as the semifinals? I dunno, ask Platini, he probably knows better. Snark aside these two teams are hardworking and well disciplined. They may lack the name recognition of some Serie A, La Liga, and Premiership teams that went out in the last round but they are not out of place at this stage of the competition. As far as predicting who will advance, I do not know enough about these sides to really give a good opinion. I will say this: Lyon's epic triumph over Real Madrid was achieved in large part by using Madrid against itself. Setting up in a tight and coordinated formation and allowing the "we are Real Madrid we can do anything" exuberance result in turn-overs and unimaginative forays forward that were easily picked off. I know it has become the ultimate cliche in sports but Lyon really were masterful in allowing the Real Madrid players and officials arrogant public statements become an albatross around the Merengues necks in the second leg. If it is true that Lisandro Lopez told Sergio Ramos "if you are going to score 5 on us you better get going, the game is almost over," in the final minutes at the Bernabeu that is some of the best on pitch dialogue in a long time.

That said I see Bordeaux just a little (not sarcastic) better suited to take the initiative themselves. And they are not the kind of hubris laden side that will permit itself to be judo'd out so easily by Lyon. So I would probably take them as of now.

These sides know each other extremely well and that may add a wild card factor too.

Barcelona vs Arsenal
There may not be two more similar teams among Europe's elite than Barcelona and Arsenal. Clearly Barcelona are the deluxe version but the supreme level of skill and quickness with which both squads play the ball around the pitch will make this a delightful two legs of football for a neutral. The last time they met in this competition was on the eve of the previous World Cup and Barcelona won the title in that final. I am nearly certain they will win this one as well. I can not stress how similar these teams are and that Barcelona are just better at it than Arsenal. What I think we will see is an illustration of exactly why. And two things come to mind: 1, Barcelona pressure like madmen the second they lose the ball and more often than not are able to make their opponent hurry and unload the ball which results in an easy recovery. Arsenal by contrast seem to go stretches without the ball when up against elite competition. 2, Barcelona's impressive sense for when to make the kill pass that puts a man through on goal. At that highest of high levels it is sometimes tempting to think the final pass is just one more touch, but guys like Xavi, Iniesta, and Messi have an innate sense of when, where, and how that Nasri, Eboue, and others sometimes lack.

Internazionale vs CSKA Moscow
I will readily admit that I am shocked to see the Russians still in the tournament, and given their upset win in Andalucia I can not discount them. Still, Inter are a superior and deeper team who progressed out of the last round in more impressive fashion and should advance to the semis. When they travel to Moscow I expect a very cautious, very Italian performance likely ending in a nil draw. At the San Siro I am nearly certain of an Inter victory. The CSKA backline did a good job handling Sevilla's sometimes dangerous attack but as a unit they look somewhat slow. Milito and Eto'o will count on support from the midfield and the marauding Maicon down the right flank to pull holes in the CSKA defense. Not as straight forward as the Serie A champion against a Russian club would have sounded 5 or 8 years ago, but I do see Inter in the next round.

Now There Are Eight

2010-03-17T15:49:00.000-07:00

Very enjoyable set of games we had this week in the Champion's League. Can't wait to see what the matchups are for the quarters. A lot of the teams with elite European pedigree are out and for what feels like the first time in forever we don't have three English teams still alive at this stage of the tournament. Although I don't think there is much to it this is a pretty diverse field heading into the quarters. 2 English, 2 French (!), 1 German, 1 Spanish, 1 Italian, 1 Russian.

Tuesday

As I wrote on Monday night I thought Inter would go through. But I have to admit I envisioned it the result of a draw, likely 1-1, not an outright win at Stamford Bridge. It is easy to get carried away but the truth is that Mourinho's mastery put Inter over the top. There were many possible approaches he could take but starting 3 forwards with a 2-1 lead, on the road, was not near the top of the list. He took a gamble and by using this formation kept the Chelsea fullbacks out of the game and left it to his midfield, anchored by Cambiasso, to hold their own against Chelsea's. And it worked. The first half saw some dangerous chances for Chelsea but Lucio and Walter Samuel cleared some threatening balls. In the second half Chelsea looked frustrated and almost resigned to going out. When the game ended I was surprised to see Inter actually had the advantage in most statistical categories. Posession, shots on goal, goals (obviously), and almost half the fouls committed that Chelsea had. Very impressive performance.

CSKA winning in Andalucia was the shock of the round for me, even bigger than the "Lyonazo" in Madrid last week. They are a team I see as objectively inferior to Sevilla, even now, and they were going on the road having conceded an away goal. Palop made an absolute meal of the second goal and Perotti missed a pretty easy chance with the score 1-1, but even those things Sevilla should have been able to overcome. The CSKA backline are not very quick and with the firepower Sevilla have they should have exploited them. Shocking.

For me there was no question Barcelona would go through. Today's 4-0 thrashing sent a message they intend to defend the title. Doing so without Xavi and with Ibra on the bench speaks to the fundamental core strength of the team. No surprise here.

Bordeaux beat Olympiakos 2-1 to make their first appearance in the quarters since before it was called the Champion's League. This team is airtight in defense and I am almost a little surprised they gave up a goal, but the outcome was never in doubt.

There Will be Eight

2010-03-15T17:26:00.001-07:00

United, Lyon, Arsenal, and Bayern are through and within 48 hours they will know the other four teams in the Champion's League quarter finals. I am pretty excited for these next two days of football. America's disregard for global conventions regarding daylight savings plays to our advantage as on the east coast matches will kick off at 3:45, making it entirely reasonable to catch the second half live without having to make up an excuse for sneaking out of work. Score one for USA. Here are some thoughts on the eve of the games:

TOMORROW (3/16)

Chelsea vs Inter Milan
This is clearly the glamour match up of the round. Inter are heading to the bridge with a 2-1 lead in hand but that means very little. Chelsea rarely lose at Stamford Bridge. Fortunately for Inter, Mourinho loses there even less often than Chelsea. Ancelotti's is a steady hand and with a one goal deficit and the away goal in hand I don't think Chelsea will be guilty of exposing themselves due to eagerness in chasing the first goal. They will go forward of course but it does not feel like one of those second leg games where if the home side don't score in the first twenty minutes or so the game is over. I still think Inter go through, and I see it being a score draw tomorrow.

Sevilla vs CSKA Moscow
Sevilla's composition will be markedly different tomorrow than in the first leg. Replacing Alvaro Negredo will be Luis Fabiano who didn't play in Moscow due to injury. Reports have him as the lone man up top as Sevilla will come out in a 4-4-1-1. With a 1-1 result in their pocket Sevilla have the luxury of making their opponents chase the game on hostile ground. CSKA Moscow have looked a cut below to me and although they are at this stage of the competition for a reason I do not see them going into Andalucia and blowing Sevilla away. They will probably score but I don't expect tomorrow's match, or the aggregate score, to be close. Sevilla 3-1 or something like that.

WEDNESDAY ( 3/17)
Barcelona vs Stuttgart
Barcelona may have been nudged off their perch in La Liga but yesterday's demolition of Valencia (who sit in a CL spot as of now, not exactly bottom feeders) indicates they have not lost form. The 1-1 they got in Germany is useful but it will be irrelevant in the second leg. I see them winning this game outright, with ease. I know I had a similar prediction a couple weeks back and they were unable to pull it off but this feels like one of the games Guardiola's team is made for. 2-0 at the Nou Camp.

Bordeaux vs Olympiakos
Being between two perhaps not as well known teams this match up has not gotten a lot of attention. In my opinion Bordeaux is a clear step above Olympiakos and while I thought they would ride out the away leg with a draw they were able to get the win on foreign soil. It is difficult to think of a realistic scenario in which Olympiakos turn it around in France. Bordeaux won a group that included Bayern Munich and Juventus and to date have the stingiest defense in the Champion's League. I do not see Olympiaklos finding the key that unlocks it on Wednesday. 2-0 will put Bordeaux into the quarter finals.

GONE-zalo Higuain?

2010-03-14T16:36:00.000-07:00

Today's events may have changed things a bit but in the wake of the humiliating elimination from the Champion's League one of the big scapegoats was looking to be Gonzalo Higuain. Obviously the manager was first in line and Kaka was coming in for his share of blame but Higuain's effort off the post after he had the keeper beat, along with a few other plays where he could have done better, had most of Madridom shouting that if only they had someone else in that position they would be looking forward to finding out who their quarter-final opponent would be. Then news of a dust up between him and the The Greasy One, who appears to be untouchable in the Merengue universe, surfaced and other players had to come out and insist everyone was cool and there was nothing to it. And on top of that there is the issue of his contract. Higuain and his agent told Real Madrid they want 4 million euros a season and the club responded with complete silence. There are still months to go until the end of the season but you would think a club would jump at a chance to lock up a guy like him at such a modest salary. Taken together all these things suggest that maybe Gonzalo Higuain is on his way out of Madrid.

I am not suggesting he is a better player than Cristiano Ronaldo, but I do think a lot of people (particularly Real supporters) don't grasp just how valuable he is. He started last season somewhere between starter and sub and wound up leading the club in goals. With the army of superstars the club signed over the summer he had to start over again and prove he should start. And now, in the middle of March, he is the team leader in league goals. After today's hat trick Higuain's La Liga total is 19, 4 ahead of The Greasy One. It is worth noting that Higuain has achieved this while playing less minutes thus far this season than his teammate. And all of his goals have come from open play while two of the TGO's have been from the penalty spot. So in reality Higuain has scored six more goals than the most expensive player in the history of professional sports, and yet Madrid is not sure he is worth four million euros a year.

Again, the apparent difficult moment for Higuain at the club may just be the passing by product of a tense week. But it may not. If the sixth consecutive CL debacle for Real Madrid results in Higuain at another club it will be the gift that keeps on giving. They will lose a key under appreciated piece, and I will finally be able to pull for a player I like without the mental asterisk that comes with seeing him in a Madrid shirt.

Man City Leave it Late

2010-03-14T11:59:00.001-07:00

Just watched Manchester City claw out a draw in the dying moments on their visit to Sunderland. Very interesting match I thought. Looked like a totally different game on either side of the break. Sunderland deserved the lead they took into the locker room after dominating a bland looking Man City team. The Citizen defense was terribly shaky and it would not have been unjust for the margin to be more than a goal. But from the opening moments of the second half City were reenergized and refocused. The first ten minutes had two legitimate opportunities that were harder to miss than convert, but that is what happened. The equalizer finally came in stoppage time when Adam Johnson who came on as a substitute curled a beautiful shot from the corner of the penalty area to the upper corner on the opposite side of goal. The ball dropped in just below the crossbar and just above the Sunderland defender's jumping attempted header. Wonderful goal.

Here are some other thoughts about the game:

Craig Gordon was fantastic. Probably not entirely fair that he didn't walk away with the clean sheet. At least 4 eye opening saves.

Craig Bellamy had what was probably one of the most frustrating games of all time. Two or three fouls called against him in situations of consequence where he clearly did nothing wrong. Two very good shots thwarted by the spectacular Gordon. He worked and worked but it wasn't his day.

Roque Santa Cruz is terrible. He was by far the worst player for Manchester City today. I could barely believe Mancini left him on when he burned his last change. Bad in every aspect of the game. More and more it appears his 20 goal season with Blackburn Rovers was the exception. I know he isn't too old but I think his time at the top level is just about over.

Adam Johnson was awesome. He only played about 15 minutes or so but he was excellent every time he touched the ball. And the goal was incredible.

The Round So Far

2010-03-10T18:32:00.000-08:00

Pretty entertaining set of matches we had this week. I got some right some wrong. Here are some thoughts on how it shook out:

Arsenal 5-0 Porto
I picked Porto to advance from this matchup and could not have been more wrong. It was not even close. No Cesc was not a problem for Arsenal. Bendtner's hat trick was fantastic for Arsenal but the fact that it came less than a week after he squandered 3 legitimate scoring opportunities shows he has the mindset to be a world class striker. Absolute gulf in class here.

Fiorentina 3-2 Bayern Munich
Fiorentina put up more of a fight than I thought, in fact they won the game but were done in on away goals. I didn't see the whole game but what I did catch I thought Bayern played a little below their potential. They now have some extra time to get ready for their next opponent. Their back line should be back to health by the time the quarter final round begins and the always fragile Ribery and Robben may be in better shape.

Manchester United 4-0 AC Milan
There was never a doubt in my mind United were moving on, but I didn't think it would be such a blow out. The fact that the second place team in Serie A lost 7-2 on aggregate I think says a lot about the balance of power in Europe these days. It really is Spain and England then everybody else.

Real Madrid 1-1 Lyon
On Monday night I accurately predicted the score of this game. Genius, genius, genius. When The Greasy One put Madrid up in the opening minutes I thought they were probably heading to the quarters, but the game settled into the pattern I expected in the second half. Madrid have themselves to blame as they squandered at least 3 clear opportunities. Lyon did a good job of containing Madrid. Not terribly exciting to watch and a bit cynical at times, but they had a plan and stuck to it. As a result they are among the 8 teams left standing and Real Madrid are out of Europe in the first knock out round for the sixth time in a row. All of the doomsdaying you would expect is in full swing in the Spanish press and this game is sure to be the reference point for an avalanche of changes going forward. I am going to enjoy this for now and will probably write a longer post about it in the days to come.

Thoughts:
All in all 4 pretty cool games. Each one interesting in its own way. This might be a snobbish thing to say but I think of the 4 teams who made their way into the next round this week only Manchester United has a strong chance of being Champions of Europe this year. For me the other real contenders are playing next week. Still, any one of the other three teams is capable of ending a campaign for one of the heavies. Look forward to the reshuffling.

Real Madrid, Liverpool, and AC Milan are the three most accomplished clubs in European competition and none of them are still alive. Probably doesn't mean anything in itself, but I find it interesting.

Champs League is Coming

2010-03-08T18:19:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow! And Wednesday! But before that was Monday! And Wigan took a bite out of Liverpool's hopes of being in the knockout rounds this time next year with a 1-0 win. I am not sure what the exact situation was but I recall them beating Chelsea 1-0 roughly around this time 2 seasons ago and the Blues went on to lose the league to United by the narrowest of margins. Spoilers. I still can't believe Liverpool worked their way back into a European place and gave away three points.

Tomorrow

Arsenal vs Porto-
I think Arsenal are going out, and my pick is a 1-1 draw that puts Porto through 3-2 on aggregate. Without Fabregas to run play Arsenal are going to have to use a more straight forward attack in search of a goal and despite not being the team they were in years past, Porto will be able to snuff out the danger. Radamel Falcao is one of the players I picked to be a surprise in the Champs League and he has been awesome, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the scoresheet tomorrow.

Fiorentina vs Bayern Munich-
The first leg pitted two teams flying in completely opposite directions against each other and not much has changed in the couple of weeks since. The injury to Martin Demichelis is inconvenient but not a real threat to Bayern. With the comfort of a lead built up at home they can dictate the play in Florence to an extent. If Fiorentina aren't on the board by the fifteenth minute I think it is safe to say this one is over.

Wednesday
United vs AC Milan
It would take a real jaw dropping turn of events to see Milan through and I just don't think it is in the cards. Although they only trail by one on aggregate they conceded THREE away goals in the first leg. As presently constituted Milan do not look like the kind of side that can easily rack up goals at Old Trafford. But for the sake or argument let's say they do, it is impossible to imagine that kind of attack not exposing what is a pretty wobbly defense to counterattacks. I actually think United wins this game outright, probably 2-1. For all the story lines this one is kind of anti-climatic.

Real Madrid vs Lyon
If Madrid were going to lose the first leg, having only the minimal deficit to turn around at the Bernabeu doesn't seem like too big a hill to climb. It is not, but it is also not a given. Lyon did not stumble into the win at home, they were disciplined, organized, and lethal. There is no reason to think they can not do this again with the comfort of starting the match with a lead. Many people have suggested this game is a custom made big stage for the Greasy One to announce to the world he is Real Madrid now. That can go either way. The pressure and scrutiny and bigness of the moment might be enough to charge up and he overruns Lyon in a virtuoso performance. Or he takes the team on his shoulders and charges ahead but is picked off by a rigid and prepared team and they get an early goal on the counter. I am probably in the minority on this but I see a 1-1 draw, with Lyon going through on aggregate.

Thoughts On Inter

2010-03-07T14:45:00.000-08:00

I was really stoked for this game. Sunday afternoon, relax and watch Inter vs Genoa. And it was terrible. Pretty boring nil draw. I was surprised by the amount of sloppiness from both squads. Soooo many lazy passes resulting in turn overs, poor marking, weak finishing.

Milito was clearly fouled in the box early in the second half. From the ref's angle I think it was a hard call to make, but it should have been a penalty.

Lucio and Zanetti are awesome.

Ricardo Quaresma still sucks. How can you be that bad for that long at that many clubs and still get trotted out to play elite football on occasion? Mystifying.

Mario Balotelli has serious difficulties with the mental side of the game. Watching today both his exceptional talents and his debilitating attitude were on full display. He is capricious and childish and not lazy but has a certain "over it" streak in him that stand between him and being a superstar. All the physical tools are there, and I hope he and Inter are able to put it together.

Rodrigo Palacio is one of those guys people will look back on twenty years from now and think he missed out on being a legend by a chance. Watching him today as a slightly above average attack player on a mid table or maybe a bit better team in Serie A it was strange to recall how dominant of a force he was in the middle part of the 00's with Boca Juniors. He turned down deals to some of the bigger clubs in Europe and when he finally made the jump (for considerably less money than he'd been offered) injury and age made him less than he should have been. I'm not a Boca fan but it is kind of sad.

AC Milan vs Roma was also a nil draw so nothing really changes. Take one more game off the schedule, that much closer to winning the league. What does it say about Italian football when the top three teams in the league combine for zero goals? That it is still Italy.

Dudes!!!!

2010-03-03T17:54:00.000-08:00

Yo!!!! The World Cup is like less than 100 days away and stuff!!! Bam! Woo! Smash!

So much snow in New York I almost forgot! Whoa.....

So yesterday and today a bunch of WC teams played friendlies. For some the final tune up before they name their squad. Some interesting stuff but it is important not to read too much into it. I just felt like posting because hearing/reading the words "last friendly before heading to South Africa" made me pop a six foot boner for charity.

Brazil vs Ireland
I can't imagine Dunga is serious about excluding Ronaldinho AND Pato but plans on bringing Adriano to the WC. I think at least Pato makes the squad and if his options are healthy Adriano stays in Brazil. Robinho has a real problem grasping the concept of offside vs onside. I was kind of hoping for Ireland to grab a win hear and maybe attenuate the sting of being robbed of a spot this summer. That and I absolutely loathe Brazil.

England vs Egypt
Kind of embarrassing to go into the break a goal down to a team that didn't even make the dance, but a 3-1 win is enough. Don Fabio seems to be the meticulous kind of manager that has purpose in everything he does and I suspect many guys played for their spot on the team today. To me James Milner is one of the most underrated players in the Prem and definitely deserves a starting spot on the national team if they are going with 4 midfielders, which appears to be case. Surprised he didn't start. Cartlon Cole is a very dangerous player that maybe doesn't get his due because he is at West Ham. Given the strike corps drops pretty hard after Rooney and DeFoe I can see Cole getting some minutes in South Africa.

Argentina vs Germany
I know it is a one goal win. I know it is a friendly. I know there are gargantuan problems standing between Argentina and the World Cup. So I am just going to enjoy this. Always a classic match up and the pieces I got to see were hard fought and fairly entertaining. Di Maria looked lethal. Much of the team has sorted itself out but the backline continues to be undefined. Demichelis' injury shouldn't keep him from SA. Along with Heinze I think he is a lock. But who else? There are at least 3 guys who could start at right back (Zanetti, Zabaleta, Papa) and a whole raft of center-halfs. Heinze could even play there and have Insua slide in at left back. I think today cemented Higuain as the 9 for the tournament.

France vs Spain
Spain are an absolute machine. France's problems off the field are well known but they are still a quality side. If someone, anyone, else were in charge the talent in this group would be enough to have them considered in an elite group of favorites. And they were beaten soundly at home by their neighbors. Right now I see Spain as the best team going into the tournament by a sizable margin. The only concern I have regarding Spain is exhaustion. They have played international tournaments the last two summers with essentially the same squad and almost all their players are at elite clubs that go deep into multiple competitions. In addition four of their key players (Andres Iniesta, Carles Puyol, Gerard Pique, and Xavi) are staples in the Barcelona lineup and have been subjected to an almost superhuman fixture list. If Spain reaches the final in July Xavi will have played competitive football for 22 of the previous 24 months at the highest possible level.

Holland vs USA
I don't think there is much to take from this. A 2-1 loss in the Netherlands is neither discouraging nor surprising. Stuart Holden got hurt and that is bad. We more or less know who is in the squad and where it is weak and strong. A spot in the final 16 is very doable and hard work and focus should get the Americans there.

Switzerland vs Uruguay
The Swiss went up 1-0 at home and then got run off the park. A 3-1 win in the Alps might be a big boost for Uruguay, a squad I think will surprise a lot of people next summer. You can say what you want about qualifying groups but the Swiss have been in two consecutive WC's. Uruguay are not terribly deep in many areas but they are gritty and tough and have skill in their strikers that is equalled by very, very, very few national teams. If they are able to keep themselves on the park I think they are going through as the second team in group A.

The Unsurprising Upset

2010-02-16T13:47:00.000-08:00

Snow got me out of work early and also gave me an opportunity to catch some Champs League without making pretend I had something to do. I caught almost the whole second half of Lyon-Madrid and I have to say it was worth it. Real's troubles in France are well documented and in the lead up to the match the Spanish press seemed confident this time would be different. But it was not. I did not see the first half but Lyon were clearly in control in the second. They had a game plan and held to it rigidly. They made it very difficult for Real Madrid to move the ball up the field on the ground and as a result they began using searching/hoping longer passes that were gobbled up by the backline. Positionally Lyon were very sound. Madrid did get forward on some occasions but there was very little real danger. Kaka especially seemed to be devoid of ideas with the ball at his feet and 25 yards or less from goal. The Lyon counter attack was superb knowing when to commit men forward and when to put on the breaks and wait, sucking Madrid's attacking players back down the field. Of the Madrid players the only one I thought looked really good (in attack at least, the defense was not too bad, the one goal aside) was Benzema. At times Granero had some good touches but he disappeared for stretches of the game.

What to expect in the return leg? I don't know. Lyon didn't fluke into this win and they can very realistically get a result. That said Madrid will have a lot to play for and are absolutely capable of erasing the minimal deficit. I would note Roma and Liverpool have gotten results at the Bernabeu at this stage of the competition the last two years, and neither were elite teams. They both crashed out in the following round.

In the other Tuesday game United got a 3-2 win at the San Siro which is not really a surprise. United are not the team they were when they came with in a game of doing the double back to back, but it is clear that United minus Tevez and Ronaldo is still better than Milan minus Kaka.

Barcelona Win Again

2010-02-06T14:23:00.001-08:00

For the last few weeks the jealousy and frustration and general how can this be happening of the Real Madrid universe has manifested itself in anti-Barcelona campaign. When The Greasy One was given a two match ban for breaking an opponents nose via elbow his teammates and and people from Real Madrid's staff went insane, demanding (in Jorge Valdano's words) that the disciplinary committee take into account whether or not the player being sanctioned plays attractive football before issuing a ban. Sergio Ramos and others were indignant at the ban because and noted that Lionel Messi, Barcelona's star and the best player in the world, once elbowed someone too. I am not making this up. As almost an asterisk or after thought the Real partisans admitted he didn't do damage to the other player. That is the one small difference between the two incidents. Which is kind of like saying if two people get drunk in a bar and one drives home while the other walks a DUI is unfair because they were both drunk.

The other strand of Barcelona hating is an insistence that Spanish referees are bent on pushing them over the top. This campaign has gained a lot of steam in the pro-Real Madrid media, particularly the paper/webiste As. (I actually like a lot of what As does, but their bias on this is annoying). When a quick free kick pass to Pedro resulted in the go-ahead and eventual game-winning goal against Sporting, there was an uproar about offside. To be fair it was a close call, but replay showed it was at best a tie and Pedro was probably onside. He was also more than 50 yards from goal at the time. As ran a still image showing him ahead of the Sporting defenders by about half a yard. What the supposed proof of favoritism ignored was that the ball was already in the air. This is campaign is particularly irritating considering it is in support of Real Madrid, a club so morally corrupt it hired a retired official as a liaison to referees and didn't even hide it.

So all this leads me to say I was very pleased watching Barcelona's 2-0 win today over Getafe and am a little curious how the Madridista outlets will play it. Barcelona's squad was missing several key players like Carles Puyol and Dani Alves and played Iniesta up front initially instead of in midfield. They deservedly went down a man in the 25th when Pique was sent off, making them play on 10 men for over an hour. Marquez was also sent off in a play that resulted in a Getafe spot-shot and their only goal. Barcelona dominated the match start to finish and if Keita was a little less erratic it would have been 4-0. Truly masterful, but more important the calls went against Barcelona and they did not blink. I am curious how this game will play in the capital.

FIFA Rankings are Absurd Ex. # 1,000,000,000

2010-02-03T17:43:00.001-08:00

FIFA released their latest national team rankings. At the very top it is about right for the most part and a case can be made for the teams in the single digits. And then... Egypt is supposedly the tenth best national team in the world. Okay. Yes I know they just won the third rate ACoN again but seriously, who cares? This is a team that failed to qualify for the upcoming world cup (and the last one, and the one before that, and the one before that, etc) playing in a region that has never sent a squad as far as a world cup semi-final. Can anyone name an Egyptian player that has an impact role on a team that will legitimately challenge for a title in Spain, England, or Italy this year? Or the Champion's League?

As The Window Shuts

2010-02-01T18:34:00.000-08:00

An interesting flurry of moves as the January window came to a close. Here are some thoughts on the bigger ones:

Mancini to AC Milan- Good riddance. I know it is a loan but I hope they keep him. What does it say about a player when his club thinks about including him in a swap with their most hated rivals who are also currently directly behind them in the title chase? And more importantly what does it say about that player when the other team decline the swap and they say "eh, whatever, take him anyway"? Mancini was never a good fit at Inter and they don't need him. It would have been nice to get Ledesma but all in all this squad is in good shape.

Robbie Keane to Celtic- I was kind of surprised at this one. I know he hasn't been getting too many minutes but I just didn't see him leaving, and especially not to the SPL. Not yet anyway. Keane is a very good player and in the watered down competition in Scotland he will tear it up. Despite his flops at Inter and Liverpool I kind of have a soft spot for Keane. I hope he does well. As he moves to Celtic Scot McDonald is leaving the club for Middlesborough, underscoring the difference in class between the two leagues.

Mariano Pavone to Catania- I am surprised he stayed in Spain as long as he did. Pavone never got settled there and a few times I assumed he had moved elsewhere. The reason I think this is interesting is because he joins Maxi Lopez on what I have read is the most South American heavy side in the history of Serie A. I am not sure if that is true but it has to be pretty close.

Fulham- I think the addition of Okaka will give them some more depth up front and Nicky Shorey will do the same in the back. Good moves both. Fulham are a team that I think were beginning to slip from the middle of the table but with these moves they should be able to hold their ground.

Man City- Adam Johnson is a nice addition but I get the feeling he is going to be one more in an already bloated squad. Maybe he gets significant minutes, but I think not. On another front I think City won by losing. Their deal with Madrid for Fernando Gago collapsed at the last minute and I suspect they are better of for it. Gago is a very good player but Manchester City is not the team and the Prem is not the league for him. His game is ill suited for England and Gareth Barry has an iron clamp on Gago's best position.

Panic in Florence

2010-01-31T12:50:00.000-08:00

Fiorentina have taken Barcelona's next-big-thing-but-not-quite-yet Keirrison on loan. La Viola's first choice target was Antonio Cassano but Sampdoria's asking price was too high and with the window slamming shut in the near future they pulled the trigger on the Brazilian. Fiorentina are in a position where they had to do something to shore up their attack after the Adrian Mutu debacle. Although Fiorentina advanced through a reasonably competitive group in the Champions League they are languishing in the middle of the Serie A table, 7 points out of qualifying for next year's competition. That they are alive on three fronts (league, Europe, and copa) means their squad will be taxed heavily in the coming months. They needed add an attacking player if they want to succeed but I am not sure this was the right move.

Kierrison was signed from Palmeiras last summer for around 20 million Euros and Barcelona immediately shipped him off to Benfica to gain European experience. That experiment was a flop as he look poor on the rare occasion he got some playing time. If a guy can not win a starting place over guys like Javier Saviola and Oscar Cardozo (solid players but not elite figures) what makes Fiorentina think he can thrive in the more demanding Serie A? He will probably be on the bench behind Jovetic and Gilardino most of the time but the number of fixtures means he will get chances. I really don't expect this to be the signing that pushes Fiorentina over the top. From Kierrison's point of view it could be said this is a fresh start, a second chance to justify the hype and transfer fee of last summer. He is still very young. And while it would be tempting to say it is make or break time, the truth is that you can get many, many chances. Ricardo Quaresma has flopped in 3 of the biggest leagues in Europe and still gets mentioned as a possible target by reasonably successful clubs.

ACoN

2010-01-25T20:02:00.000-08:00

I will freely admit I have not watched any of the African Cup of Nations matches. And I will also admit I am what you might call a hater and/or doubter when it comes to African football (as far as clubs and national teams go, I recognize that some of the best players in the world at elite clubs come from Africa). But seeing the highlights from the quarter final matches really left me in shock. The one that was particularly egregious was the match between World Cup bound Cameroon and 2 time defending champion Egypt. The game ended 3-1 in Egypt's favor and save the final goal scored (or more accurately not scored since it never crossed the line) on a freekick every goal involved at least one hackle raising mistake that would get a second division player sent to the bench. Like really eye-popping stuff. When I see play that sloppy in such an important game, my belief that African football is not ready for primetime is reinforced. Prove me wrong.

On a more serious note Pitch Itchy wishes a speedy and full recovery to Salvador Cabanas. He was shot in the head in a Mexico City nightclub early this morning. There seems to be a lot of tragedies around football these last few months. Sad and senseless, I hope he is able to pull through.

Thoughts on the Derby De La Mad

2010-01-24T17:50:00.001-08:00

Here are some quick thoughts about Inter's 2-0 win today:

1. Julio Cesar is now the best goalkeeper in Serie A. Probably in the world.

2. Diego Milito is an absolute stud. In three Milan derbys he has scored four goals. His goals per game in Italy is well over .5, both this year and career.

3. The Sneijder red card for sarcastic clapping was absolutely ridiculous. That is a petty thing to do and maybe deserves to go in the book but come on. In the 27th minute?! Without any previous offenses?! In a huge game... not so cool.

4. Late in the first half Milan were their own worst enemy when it came to attack. So many balls to Inter players or lazy crosses or just killing time. AC Milan are probably the second best team in Italy right now but their lack of sharpness speaks to the current stature of Serie A vs La Liga and the Prem.

5. Down a goal but up a man Leonardo had the luxury of swapping Gatuso for Seedorf. Seedorf-Ronaldinho looked like a dangerous partnership in the opening minutes of the second half but the spark fizzled. It speaks volumes about a team when they can add an attacking player, be one man up for more than an hour, and the viewer hardly notices their opponent is on ten.

6. Goran Pandev seems to still be one-half step out of synch. That said he gives good effort and his free kick goal was beautiful. When he gets completely on the same page as the rest of the team he is going to go on a tear.

7. Lucio's red card was almost as stupid as Sneijder's. It was clearly a penalty but clearly not a red. Terrible call.

8. Ronaldinho sucks.

9. For being such a hardass Marco M. has a surprising fun side. He has hardly played this year but is always very supportive and lighthearted. When Balotelli scored that bomb of a freekick in the Champs League he ran off the bench and on to the field to congratulate what is by all accounts not a beloved player. He is always doing goofy stuff on the bench and I thought rocking the Berlusconi mask as the match ended was pretty good.

10. Pandev, Lucio, and Sneijder are on my fantasy team. So 1 goal is good but 2 red cards bad. Thanks jerk.

Nevermind

2010-01-24T05:56:00.001-08:00

It looks like he is gone after all. This is going to be a fun one to speculate over. There is word that Guus is quitting the RNT officially next week so that might work.

How Long Can He Last?

2010-01-23T14:28:00.001-08:00

So Juve lost again. At home, again. This time they fell 2-1 to the resurgent Roma under former Grey Lady mister Claudio Ranieri. I know Ciro Ferrara seems to have an unending store of votes of confidence from the club but it feels like at some point he has to get sacked. They have taken only 3 of the last 18 possible points and are effectively out of the title chase. Add to that the embarassing debacle at home against Bayern Munich that took them out of the Champion's League and this is looking like the worst season post-calciopoli.

The squad isn't at the calibre of some of the powerhouses in Juventus history but it certainly has enough to be able to compete. Given the quickfinger culture of Italian football I am shocked he isn't gone yet. So much so that I think maybe he sticks out the season so they can bring in a big name over the summer. Or maybe not, who knows.

So Sad

2010-01-09T08:45:00.000-08:00

So that is my world cup prediction at the start of the new year. To recap here is how I see the round of 16:

France (1A) vs. Greece (2B)

Argentina (1B) vs. Uruguay (2A)

England (1C) vs. Ghana (2D)

Germany (1D) vs. USA (2C)

Netherlands (1E) vs. Italy (2F)

Paraguay (1F) vs. Denmark (2E)

Brazil (1G) vs. Chile (2H)

Spain (1H) vs. Portugal (2G)

I hope I am right. I love being right.

In much, much, much worse news, I am sure everyone has heard about the tragedy on the eve of the African Cup of Nations. Angolan rebels attacked the Togo team bus. The machine gun attack left at least four dead and many wounded. There is some dispute regarding the actual death toll and whether or not any players were among the fatalities, but ESPNsoccernet is reporting a goalkeeper was killed. I have seen that account denied in the European press, we will know soon.

I can't put into words how hard this bums me out. Togo rightly withdrew from the tournament and Marca claim that Ghana and Ivory Coast are on the verge of joining them. It is easy to blame Angola for lapse in security, and perhaps it is correct. But for me that is not the issue. The sadness is overwhelming when a tournament of such importance is subject to this. It is cliche for many of us in the western world to say things like "football is more than a game" and things of that nature, but the reality is that in some parts of Africa football is that rare thing that gets people to stop killing each other, at least for a while. And even if it sounds naive, to me it seems that when something like this comes along and ruins it, a certain bottom has dropped out.

How does/should this impact the world cup in South Africa? I don't know. It is well known that South Africa is a country with serious security problems, but they have had enough time to plan and from all accounts the South African government has been very good at seeking advice from abroad and coordinating it's efforts. A little over a year ago I was talking to a South African who lives here in the US about it and he told me in his opinion security would not be too much of an issue because the government would slam down an iron fist and create a pseudo-police state for the duration of the competition. I don't know if this is true but he made it sound plausible. It is probably for the best if it ensures the safety of players, staff, journalists, fans, and others. At the same time on a deeper level having that kind of thing happen in a host country kind of tarnishes what the game and the tournament should be about. It may be the reality of what has to happen, but it is not at all what I think a world cup should be.

Group H

2010-01-05T21:15:00.000-08:00

H is for Heathrow, Heathers (the movie), Heather (the name), and hockey which is probably my favorite team sport other than football. H is also the final group.

Group H

Switzerland, Chile, Spain, Honduras

This one looks pretty straight forward to me. Four teams, each at a very different level with distinct playing styles. Surprises are always possible but I think we know how this one is going to go.

Switzerland- They had an impressive run in 2006 making it through the group stage on an airtight defense. We all know they were the only team to go out without conceding and that was cool. But their unimpressive performance as host of the Euro two years later was a let down. Switzerland aren't a bad team but I see them as a kind of "happy to be here" squad. Maybe they get to four points, and in some scenarios that could be enough, we will see.
PTW- I dunno.

Spain- The best team in the tournament as of right now Spain will demolish this group. They have what looks to be a perfect set of conditions. Skilled players that also want to win and know how, a hungry and accomplished coach who can both motivate and handle the tactical side of managing, a deep squad that boasts more than one elite player at nearly every position, a group of players mostly at or near their prime, and the experience of having won a major trophy recently. One of the things that makes Spain easy to like as a neutral observer is that they are a superpower that wins and wins and wins but does it always on their terms. And in their case that means fluid, attractive, and attacking football.
PTW- Andres Iniesta. Spain are overloaded with superstars so this is subjective, but I think he is a key piece. At both club and country level Iniesta's teams have been nearly unbeatable the last 18 months. But take a look at the rare occasions they have lost: he has been absent. It may or may not be a coincidence but when Iniesta is running and touching and passing alongside Xavi there is no other midfield duo in the world that can approach them.

Honduras- This team is garbage. They qualified through Concacaf where they are an okay side, but on the big stage in a group where they are clearly the worst of the four their chances are extremely slim.
PTW- Carlos Pavon. Maybe he gets them a much needed goal. Does he get them two or three? Seriously doubt it, but maybe he makes me eat my words.

Chile- Much like Paraguay this is a team that will surprise those who do not follow the South American game. Marcelo Bielsa whipped the Chileans into a disciplined and astute team that can control the flow of a game to their advantage. Watching them play in qualifying was very enjoyable. They had a few signature wins over regional rivals and I fully expect them to take second place in this group. Chile do not have a great history at world cups but this team is cohesive and organized and has some legitimately good players like Alexis Sanchez and Chupete Suazo.
PTW- Speaking of... Suazo plays in the comparatively inferior Mexican league but he is a true goal scorer who is able to bury chances when they arrive. In this tournament I see the team laboring to create opportunities for him and he will seal the deal the if they are to go through. And he probably will.

Group H predictions
1. Spain (9)
2. Chile (6)
3. Switzerland (3)
4. Honduras (3)

Group G

2010-01-04T18:24:00.000-08:00

Get is for Get it Over With, which is pretty much how I feel about this group. I have heard a lot of people floating the idea that this is a group of death, but that is wrong. There is one legitimate doormat in North Korea, and as attractive as some of the names in the Ivorian squad are, Brazil and Portugal will only fail to advance if they give less than they are capable of.

Group G

Brazil, North Korea, Portugal, Ivory Coast

Brazil- All the plaudits go without saying. They are a machine and should cruise through the group. I will add that this team may not thrill the fans back home as much as previous editions but are superior to most Brazilian squads on set pieces and counter attacks, making them even more dangerous. Dunga also has his team buying into running, tackling, and defending in a way not many (or any that I can remember) Brazilian national teams have before. There is very much a "take the right players, not the best players" approach at work here.

If you are looking for a clue that a stumble is possible you can probably find it in their track record. Dunga took the reins of Brazil's olympic team in 2008 which included some heavy-weights as their 3 age exempt players and they looked dreadful. Early in qualifying this team looked very boring and dropped points they normally would have won in their sleep. That said they are one of the two or three best teams in the world and most of the players on their subs bench are in the first 11 at elite clubs in Europe.

*I hate them more than any national team in the world. So much so that a few months ago I told someone, "if North Korea and Iran fielded a joint national soccer team, I would pull for them against Brazil." And as it works out I will get the chance to do half of that this coming summer. Probably the only time I will be cheering for North Korea in anything.
PTW- Luis Fabiano. Since the begining of this European season he is looked like the most lethal striker in the world at times. It seems he is level-headed and humble, something that can be rare in Brazilian goal scorers, and that probably meshes well with Dunga's philosophy. If Luis Fabiano does not tear it up Brazil have no lack of firepower, but I get the feeling he could walk away from this tournament having put his name among the Cristiano Ronaldos and Lionel Messis as a global superstar.

North Korea- Seriously. Who knows? It is next to impossible to find any information on their players and, obviously, I have spent zero hours watching an actual North Korean match. This manager profile from ESPNsoccernet is somewhat informative and extremely entertaining. It appears they are a defensively-focused side. Maybe that will allow them to exit the group stage with some dignity but realistically against the three opponents they have drawn no hunkering down is going to spare them. Read the profile, it is intriguing.
PTW- I can't even find their names.

Portugal-
To me they are clearly not as good as Brazil but just as clearly better than rest of the group. Carlos Quieroz is a very good tactician and football mind but just has something missing when it comes to being a manager. This was evident in Portugal's difficulty in qualifying. Be that as it may, there is no bigger stage in sports than the World Cup and I am sure his players will find it within themselves to rise to the occasion. In some ways this team can be seen as a superstar with pieces around him but a closer look reveals a much more complete side. Bruno Alves, Ricardo Carvalho, Ferriera, and Pepe are a very solid defense. Nani, Deco, and Assuncao are legitimate midfielders in their own right and will enhance Cristiano Ronaldo's play. Up top they might be a little thin but Liedson is a reliable if generic striker. I think Portugal and the Ivory Coast will both beat North Korea and both lose to Brazil, so second place will come down to either a) their opening game against each other or b) goal difference. In the head to head I like Portugal's well rounded squad and if it comes down to it I think Cristiano Ronaldo is better than Didier Drogba.
PTW- The Greasy One. Like Messi with Argentina, it is hard to pick someone over Ronaldo.

Ivory Coast-
This team is the darling of many football fans around the world and you can understand why. They are a good team, arguably the best on their continent, but the opponents in this group will make passage extremely difficult. This team has an exceptional spine with Kolo Toure in central defense, Yaya Toure anchoring the midfield as a ball-winner, and Didier Drogba threatening up top. Ultimately I think they will make an early exit because the other players around them don't match up with the supporting casts of Portugal and Brazil. That the squad will be taxed with the additional games and travel of the African Cup of Nations this month does not help.
PTW- Didier Drogba. Everyone has seem him do his thing in Europe for the last few years. One of the best and most exciting strikers in the world. He is deadly up close but much more than that. With a powerful and accurate shot Drogba is capable of putting in a freekick that makes the difference in a tight match and can also fire on the run from 20-25 yards out. That is the good. The (maybe?) bad is his fitness. Drogba is on the far side of thirty and although not a "man of glass" he has been hampered by injuries in recent years. Factor in that between today and their match against Portugal he will have played in the African Cup of Nations, the Premiership, the FA Cup, and the Champions League and there is a good chance he will not be at his absolute peak.

Group G predictions:
1. Brazil (9)
2. Portugal (6)
3. Ivory Coast (3)
4. North Korea (0)

Group F

2010-01-03T05:55:00.001-08:00

Group F

Italy, Slovakia, Paraguay, New Zealand

In my mind this is one of the more straight forward groups in World Cup 2010. I think the more casual fan of the game might be surprised at how it shakes out but if you had an eye on qualifying Group F is likely to follow a script.

Italy- Of all the world powers Italy are the most likely to underwhelm in the group stages of a tournament. They are also the most likely to turn it around and go on a run. It is a little strange to think they are the actual title holders as this team feels and looks very different from the squad that won in Germany. I see the Italians as a national team in transition. There is a whole crop of young players in their early 20s that are capable of shining on the big stage, but the older generation are not quite out the door. It will be interesting to see if Marcelo Lippi gives the Camoranesi, Gattuso, Pirlo, Cannavaro crowd one last turn or if guys like Santon, Montolivo, Pepe, and maybe Aquafresca make this their own team. There is a strange discord between Lippi and Antonio Cassano which makes his inclusion all but impossible. That is too bad as Cassano is a player of rare ability that could provide this team with a creative spark in attack. Ther personnel aside the way Italy will play is not a mystery: they are an Italian squad coached by Marcelo Lippi. Defense.
PTW- Giorgio Chiellini. This group is not overflowing with dangerous center-forward types so he is not likely to be tested, but I am incredibly high on him. Perhaps the best central defender in the world. If and when Italy come up against a heavy-weight, Chiellini's effectiveness against a world class 9 will determine how far they progress.

New Zealand- I have always had a soft spot for all things Kiwi, for reasons I do not understand. Their football team is no exception and in a game where I don't have "a dog in the fight" I wish them all the best. That said it is impossible to like their chances. The squad is comprised of very modest talent, a few guys who have played at humble European clubs or MLS. Their drubbing at the Confed Cup last summer may well be a preview of what happens on their next trip to South Africa.
PTW- I don't know.

Paraguay- A disciplined, well coached, focused side with a bit more skill that people realize Paraguay may be one of the sleeper teams in this tournament. They have appeared in the last 3 world cups and this might be the one where they turn heads. Their impressive run in qualifying included wins over Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. Paraguay are coached by Gerardo Martino who is tactically minded to the point of maybe being obsessive but has also been able to produce an atmosphere where every player knows they are working for each other and the shirt and are willing to do whatever it takes to get the result. In what we have seen of them they rarely if ever stray from that formula.
PTW- Oscar Cardozo. Cardozo has been one of the stars in Benfica's current challenge for the Portugese title. He has been at the club since 2007 and scored an impressive 64 goals in 70 games (!) which should be enough to convince that he is not on a good run of luck. Although sometimes strike partner Roque Santa Cruz has gotten more attention in the English speaking media I think Paraguay's offensive output is more dependent on the play of Cardozo.

Slovakia- A modest but able European side, Slovakia will need a rival in the group stage to slip if they are to make it through. The team looks solid in a defense built around Martin Skrtel and has some legitimate spark going forward with Marek Hamsik and Vlad Weiss as attacking midfielders. If the pieces around them take care of the ball and Slovakia collectively run, grind, and tackle, perhaps it is enough. I kind of like this team but I am not sure they have what it takes.
PTW- Marek Hamsik. He has been killing it at Napoli for a few seasons now and I am eager to see him at a big international tournament. In addition to his creativity Hamsik is blessed with a cannon of a shot that can keep defenders on alert as he approaches. He must have at least one big game against either Paraguay or Italy to give Slovakia a shot at passage.

Group F predictions:
1. Paraguay (9)
2. Italy (6)
3. Slovakia (3)
4. New Zealand (0)

Group E

2010-01-02T12:39:00.000-08:00

E is for excellent and that should be enough.

Group E
Cameroon, Denmark, Holland, Japan

The Japanese will be sacrificial lambs in this one and any two of the other three can go through without shocking anyone. Interesting group, but most of them are.

Cameroon- Cameroon are among the African nations with the best pedigree in big tournaments and after an absence this squad seems well equipped to carry the torch that began in 1990 when they made the best run of a team from their continent, a campaign that included a win over the defending champions in the group stage, a defeat of a Colombia on the rise, and taking England to overtime in the quarter finals. What I like about this team more than other African squads is the well rounded it seems going into next summer. Carlos Kameni is a solid keeper and the defensive and midfield corps are made up of players with valuable European club experience. Maybe not superstars but guys like Bassong and Alexander Song are certainly capable of doing what needs to be done to get results. And this will likely mean working in support of Samuel Eto'o, the current Spanish silver boot and Inter Milan goal machine.
PTW- Eto'o. He is not the most self-sufficient striker in the world and some of the criticism of him are valid, but when chances arise he seldom misses. I think he will open the campaign with a multiple goal performance against the Japanese. Whether he is able to maintain the output against the European squads will determine if Cameroon see the next phase of the tournament.

Holland- An axiom of international football should be to consider the Dutch contenders in any competition they enter. Their exit from Euro 2008 perhaps soured what they had accomplished to that point and maybe they are not flying quite as high 6 months out as other European giants, but don't sleep on them. Holland went through qualification a perfect 8-0 with a goal differential of plus 15. One of the virtues of the Dutch football is the supreme technical ability which allows any group that reach national team level to work as a highly efficient unit. Despite some of the players who will be in this squad currently experiencing difficult times at their clubs, the amount of talent they will bring to South Africa is impressive. Van Der Vaart, Snjeider, Van Nistleroy, Robben, Huntelaar, Van Percy... those are just some of the names. It will not be easy but I see Holland winning this group.
PTW- Klaas Jan Huntelaar. This might be going on a limb a bit due to his poor club form at Milan. He may not even be in the starting 11 in South Africa. But I am betting he is and will destroy group E. His fiasco of a half season at San Siro not withstanding Huntelaar is one of the deadliest pure goal scorers in the world. He has 14 goals in 29 caps for the national team and has scored well over a goal every other game in his club career.

Denmark- This team is seldom mentioned with the big boys on the old continent but it would be a mistake to overlook them. They earned qualification by winning a group that included Portugal, Sweden, and a resurgent Hungary. There is limited but threatening firepower in the Danish squad and the games I saw indicate they are willing to work for a common good and have impressive team cohesion. Nicklas Bendtner is one of those classic troubled-but-gifted strikers that can put a team over the top or disappear completely. On a big stage like this with the national team shirt on his back I think the former is more likely. Denmark have a track record of success at big tournaments and they will battle Cameroon for the second spot in this one.
PTW- Nicklas Bendtner. His size, strength, and technical ability will be just as key in breaking down a physical defense like Cameroon's as a technical one like Holland's. He is a truly gifted player that can be Denmark's weapon for passage.

Japan- I don't like to be negative but I really don't see them moving through a very tough group like this. The Japanese national team has never impressed me on the big stage and this edition does not look to be any better. It is comprised of so-so journeyman at European clubs and domestic players. I have seen a couple of a Japanese heavy teams at CWCs and none of them showed me anything. Maybe in a weaker group they could pull together and scrap out the needed points, but with Cameroon, Denmark, and Holland that is too much to ask.
PTW-Shunsuke Nakamura. He had a great career at Celtic but his time at Espanyol has been a disappointment so far. He has pace and skill and might be able to create some opportunities against the run of play. Like I said I don't think it is the cards for Japan, but if it is it will come through the feet of Nakamura.

Group E predictions:
1. Holland (7)
2. Denmark (5)
3. Cameroon (4)
4. Japan (0)

Group D

2009-12-29T16:55:00.001-08:00

D is for Dude, as in "Dude... estas serioso?!?!". Also dog (poss my favorite animal). Denver, a very much top notch midsize American city. And dacha, which I hope to one day own.

Group D
Australia, Germany, Serbia, Ghana

This could be a very interesting group. The omnipresent Germans are the favorites and in all likelihood will find themselves in the round of 16 after three games. To me the other three teams are pretty interesting.

Ghana- I like Ghana's chances probably more than those of any other African country. They went through in the last tournament despite drawing a very difficult group. This time around they have a squad mostly in their mid 20s which should be able to utilize that experience. What will make or break Ghana, in my opinion, is the health and fitness of Michael Essien. He is an absolute beast. When he is healthy Essien is one of my favorite midfielders to watch. He is strong, skilled, powerful, and smart. A midfield built around an Essien-Muntari partnership should give Ghana a very good chance of making it out of the group stage once again.
PTW- Michael Essien

Germany- The Germans are always, always, always strong and there is no reason to think this time will be any different. Since Low took over the top spot from Klinsman Germany have made it to the Euro final where they lost 1-0 to a dynamic Spanish team and powered through qualifying undefeated (8-0-2). What I find interesting about the German side going into next summer is all the questions surrounding what is in many ways a power in transition. Who will fill the vacancy in goal? After his flop of a debut on the big stage at the Euros is Mario Gomez ready to be the machine he is at club level for the national team? Can Klose continue his domination of world cups (and maybe challenge for the all time goal record?)? Is Philip Lahm's offensive contribution worth the risk he exposes the German defense to? All of these questions will be answered next summer, but most likely after the group stage. There is too much skill, experience, focus, and organization to think Germany won't make it through.
PTW- Bastian Schweinsteiger. In 2006 and 2008 he showed flashes of true brilliance and he has been very exciting to watch at club level. I get the feeling that maybe Schweinsteiger has stalled a bit and has not been able to make the leap to stardom many people expected but he seems to be a player that dials it up when wearing a German shirt. He is big and fast and mean but also skilled and smart.

Serbia- The fact that Serbia won a group with France in it to qualify should be enough for them to be taken seriously. It is often easy to group the lesser known European teams into a "pretty good/not so bad" also ran group of nations, but I think this Serbian squad has a legitimate chance to make some waves. With months still to go, I see them battling Ghana for the second spot. They face each other in an opening match that will probably be passionate and urgent because they know what lies ahead. Serbia have a solid defense comprised of players who shine at some of the bigger European clubs. Nemanja Vidic may be one of the best 3 central defenders in the world. There is skill going forward and on any given day Dejan Stankovic looks like a world beater at Inter Milan. It will be up to him to drive the attack.
PTW- Dejan Stankovic.

Australia- This is by no means a bad team, but I think Australia are doomed to finish last in Group D. They reached a huge milestone in 2006 by reaching the round of 16 and this squad has many guys who play in the bigger leagues of Europe so they have a fighting chance but I don't see them being as powerful as Ghana or as technical as Serbia. Of course to see them make it through would not be a huge shock either. If that were to happen it would be on the back of Tim Cahill's creativity and playmaking and Scott MacDonald's finishing. There are pieces to work with, I just think they come up a bit short.
PTW- Mark Schwarzer. I suspect the Fulham goalkeeper will have his hands full. He will have to make saves he shouldn't to give Australia a chance.

The race for second should be a good one in this group.

My group predictions:
1. Germany (7)
2. Ghana (4)
3. Serbia (4)
4. Australia (1)

Group C

2009-12-26T12:48:00.000-08:00

C is for -amongst other things- Calvin, Cheese, and Croatia.

Group C
England, USA, Slovenia, Algeria

Group C has one borderline elite team and three good, hungry teams looking to make their mark. This might be a good one.

Slovenia- To be honest I don't know much about this squad. I saw parts of their two legs against Russia and was very impressed. They played well and the fact that they knocked off what was a heavily favored Russian squad with world class talent speaks for itself. As an Inter supporter I have caught glimpses of Rene Khrnin but not enough to know his game and I am not even sure he will figure prominently in the Slovenian squad. I know it is not much but the most I can say about this team is they are one of those classic lower end European/South American teams that will be beaten by the better teams if taken seriously but can ruin dreams if not.
PTW- It would be a lie to claim I know enough about any of these guys to say.

England- If the tournament were to start today the only teams ahead of England would be Spain and Brazil. Taking everything into consideration- skill, grit, experience, manager, depth, etc- England look like a legitimate title contender. They blazed through qualification and seem well poised to win this group. If there is one possible danger scenario it may the possibility of a problem in central defense. As of right now I imagine Terry, Ferdinand, and Lescott are the center-halfs and it is not irrational to think fitness concerns could plague the trio. But still that is a long shot. If England do not win group C it will likely be their own fault.

Algeria- Much like Slovenia I am kind of in the dark about the Algerians. I know they played those dramatic two games last month against Egypt to put themselves in at the death. The clips I saw showed gritty and determined players playing their hearts out. This may go against current conventional wisdom but I am not high on the prospects of African football at either club or country level. Africans players are phenomenal, but I will take a national team seriously when they reach a world cup semi-final. Being that South Africa are hosting this might be the year, we will see. Just a quick note: everyone talked about how Algeria defeated the defending two-time champion of Africa to win their berth. Fair enough. Egypt have not appeared in a World Cup since Italy 1990. Just saying.
PTW- See Slovenia.

USA- Living in America it is easy to get swept up in speculation. Some people are ready to declare the US a heavyweight, others are eternal doubters. Personally I see a talented pool of players who have enough experience at the highest levels to be a threat. There is also a certain bit of hunger I think. What makes me a little nervous about the USA is a tactical guilelessness on the part of Bob Bradley. I have rarely if ever seen make a mid-game correction that worked. The other thing is a tendency in past American squads to want to live on previous results. Last summer in the Confed Cup was a great achievement, but let's be honest: the US finished 2-3 and only beat one team better than them (Spain). If they want to go through they need to be focused 100 percent on England, Slovenia, and Algeria. They might know what you did last summer, but none of them care. This might be meaningless, it might not: The US are Terrible in Europe, but do pretty well elsewhere. World Cups 1990 (Italy), 1998 (France), and Germany (2006) saw the US earn a total of 1 (ONE!!!) point in 9 matches. Meanwhile they made it through a true group of death on home soil in 1994 and played respectably in the loss to eventual champion Brazil, and reached the quarter final in Asia 2002. So I think that is a good sign, maybe. They should go through in second place.
PTW- Landon Donovan. For all the divided opinions on Landon he is the one player with unique characteristics on this team. There are plenty of guys that can work and run and tackle, scoring may not be in surplus but they have finishers, but Donovan can change the dynamic of a game with his blend of skills.

Group C prediction:
1. England (7)
2. USA (5)
3. Slovenia (4)
4. Algeria (0)

Group B

2009-12-25T07:16:00.000-08:00

B is for Bro Down. It is also for Belgium and Bark. A few other things too.

Here is how I see it playing out in South Africa:

Group B
Argentina, South Korea, Nigeria, Greece

This is a somewhat interesting group. I think the consensus is that the group is made up of a wounded superpower (Argentina) and three good, very solid but not great teams from different corners of the world. I see that but in the end I suspect group B will shake out more or less along traditional lines.

South Korea- Over the last fifteen years or so South Korea has become recognized as one of the better Asian squads. Other people give that more weight than I do, but they are not a minnow. Still, an inspection of past performance and the makeup of the current team make them look like the weakest team in group B. Their only notable World Cup campaign came in 2002 and was so repulsively reliant on blatant FIFA Favors that I can not take it seriously. They went 1-1-1 in a moderate group in 2006 and their best recent showing in a very modest confed was third place in 2007. As far as the squad they feature Ji-Sung Park, a constant presence in the Manchester United line up, but other than that it is comprised of journeyman and domestic based players. There is nothing in this team that suggests it will shine in the group phase.
PTW: Ji-Sung Park. He has played in big games and won important trophies (his Champions League flop last spring is probably an aberration) and will not wilt on the big stage. He is also industrious and hardworking and can have the kind of pace to create something.

Nigeria- Their appearance in this WC is not a fluke, Nigeria have a very respectable record over the last two decades at senior and Olympic level. They are what you would expect from a solid African team: powerful and hardworking. This squad also contains some good skill players with important experience at the height of European competition. Although I think there are some soft spots, particularly in the wide areas of the field, a passage to the round of 16 is very much a possibility.
PTW: Jon Mikel Obi. If not for the heavyweights he shares the Chelsea midfield with, this guy would be a superstar already at 22. I think he is the player to watch because he can anchor a midfield and destroy oncoming attacks, scoop the ball and start the play the other way. Very well rounded and very dangerous. His one drawback is an occasional lack of discipline and that kind of thing can be disastrous with hair trigger referees and the 3 game season that is the group stage.

Argentina- A true enigma, it can be said they are the South American mirror image of France going into this tournament. This team is overloaded with talent (although most notably up front, they have players who start on elite European clubs at every position) but burdened by a manager who is more or less out of his mind and not very good at coaching. Whereas France must deal with a guy everyone agrees is a kook, the overwhelming larger-than-life persona of Maradona makes it difficult to shrug him off. It will be up to a veteran presence in the squad (someone like Veron or Zanetti, if they are called to South Africa) to make his teammates understand the shirt is more important than anything else and they have to win despite Maradona's insanity.
PTW: Lionel Messi is the best player in the world and it would be hard to pick anyone else. Even if I wanted to Maradona's inexplicable team selections put all but him and captain Javier Mascherano's presence in doubt. Messi's shortcomings with the national team are way overblown and really amount to 4 qualifying matches. He impressed at Copa America 2007, played well early in qualifying, and destroyed the Olympic tournament. He has excelled in the big games at club level and knows this may be his moment to cement his place as one of the games greats. I suspect a solid performance by Messi will carry Argentina far.

Greece- Not a European superpower but a very solid team. Qualifying through UEFA is never easy and the Grecians (*) won an impressive play-off against the Ukraine. Although they have strayed from this formula a bit recently the Greek MO has been discipline, tight marking, defense, and capitalizing on the chances they get. It won them a Euro in 2004, another appearance in 2008, and a trip to South Africa. That they are managed by a master in Otto Rehhagel is perhaps their best asset. He has been pulling the strings for a long time and the Greeks know to listen to him. I see them battling Nigeria for second in the group and actually like their chances quite a bit. They play the patient, sober (boring?) game that might be needed to knock off what is perhaps a better Nigerian team. Nigeria are strong and domineering, but the Greeks may well be able to pick them off in the middle of the park and counterattack. That is going to be the game to watch in group B.
PTW: This really is a bland, generic, faceless squad so I am going to pick Otto. It is in his hands.

My group prediction:
1. Argentina (7)
2. Greece (5)
3. Nigeria (4)
4. South Korea (1)

Back/Merry Christmas/WC Group A

2009-12-24T14:16:00.000-08:00

Dudes! I am back. I know this blog has been dormant for a while but so what? Who cares?! You are not the boss of me!!!!

So anyway Merry Christmas to everyone. Since I have some time off for the holiday I am thinking of doing a sort of preview for the World Cup, group by group, one a day. First up is Group A, because it is first alphabetically.

GROUP A
South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

This has been called one of the strongest groups for a host nation and I don't disagree. I would also point out South Africa is one of the weakest hosts ever, so that factors into it.

South Africa- Whenever a country hosts the WC it prepares for years and years and usually does a pretty good job of not embarrassing itself. There is no reason to think SA will get blown out but I am not nearly as bullish on them as some others. They have changed coaches twice in the last two years, although the last one was a return so maybe one and a half times. I saw them in last summer's Confed Cup and despite holding on until late against Brazil I saw nothing that really impressed me. They have a couple of players that do reasonably well in the Prem, but most of the squad is unknown to me. I don't think they will be a doormat but it would shock me to see them go through.
Player To Watch (PTW): Benny McCarthy. He is a guy who legitimately threatens to score. I get the feeling South Africa aren't a team that create goals with ease so they will need him to be the hitman he has been at Rovers.

Mexico- This current incarnation of the Mexican squad is not terribly powerful. They had a rough go of qualifying and Mexico are not a team that usually travels well. Does that help or hurt in a neutral-ish sight like South Africa? Who knows. Beyond the run of form and intangibles I just don't think this line up is that great. It is not awful either Mexico look like the kind of team that will cobble together a starting 11 and take it game by game. One thing that has stuck out to me over the years is the fragility of Mexican teams in international tournaments. Once they go a goal down a game that they looked very much in all of a sudden escapes them as they doubt themselves and their teammates. This is a group where they may well be down a goal more than once and they can not allow themselves to implode if they want to make it to the knockout rounds.
PTW: Rafa Marquez. Although he has seen his starts limited at Barcelona by the emergence of Gerard Pique Marquez remains a quality defender and possibly the best player on this team. As a center-half he will have to be at his very, very best in order to contain the French and Uruguayan strikers. If Mexico don't take at least 2 points in those matches they are not going through.

Uruguay- Maybe it is because I closely watch CONMEBOL, or maybe it is because I am huge history nerd and appreciate their pedigree, but I like this team much more than most people going into next summer. Like all Charua squads they are gritty to the brink of viciousness, and they have a couple of truly elite skill players. Forlan is the reigning Spanish and European golden boot and Luis Suarez holds the crown in Holland. Both of these guys are lethal. With an old but reliable Sebastian Abreu coming off the bench as a poor man's Peter Crouch they have a diverse attack. The flaw in this team is inconsistency. They routinely get results against great teams and drop points to very humble opposition. This may have to do with the thinness of the squad which in turn has to do with the comparatively small and aging population of Uruguay. It is very difficult to predict how they will do but I find myself liking their chances.
PTW: It would be easy to pick one of the bombers up front but I am going to say Diego Lugano. He isn't as talked about in the Americas because he plays in the relative purgatory of Turkish football but he is a fitting captain and embodies the tradition of Uruguayan football. In defense he is tough and rugged when he needs to but also skilled enough to separate attackers from the ball without drawing a foul. The goals he scores often seem to come in big spots like the one in San Jose during the play-in. When Diego Lugano is on Uruguay are a very good team. When he is absent or seems lost they are very run-of-the-mill.

France- For a team who is the current runner-up, has won both a World Cup and a Euro in the last dozen years, and features starters from the reigning English, Spanish, and European champion clubs France are being taken very lightly. And for good reason (sort of). Beyond the obvious legitimacy question of their qualification, Raymond Domenech is a completely inept manager who happens to find himself in command of a squad full of mind blowing talent. His tactical shortcomings are obvious and personal problems with players are legendary. If he is able to keep himself out of his team's own way, or if he is sacked before South Africa, France could be a big contender. Anelka, Henry, Benzema, Ribery, Gomis, and Govou lead what could be a superstar attack. Despite a so-so tenure at AC Milan I am very high on Flamini as a holding midfielder, and the backline which includes Abidal, Gallas, and Evra is more than enough. They have a good pool of keepers to choose from, but like with most things, expect Domenech to make it harder than it should be.
PTW: Franck Ribery. A truly world class attacking player Ribery threatens just as much by creating chances as he does to score goals himself. His absence in qualifiers made the task a little harder than it needed to be. If he is healthy and in form next summer the strike corps will feast on the opportunities he creates.

My Group Prediction:
1. France (9)
2. Uruguay (6)
3. Mexico (1)
4. South Africa (1)

WCQ re-cap

2009-11-15T09:27:00.000-08:00

We are that much closer to knowing the participants in next summer's World Cup. Cameroon, New Zealand, and Nigeria punched their tickets. I made some predictions before this round of European and American play-offs, some right some wrong. Quick thoughts:

I saw a 1-1 in Athens and it turned out to be a draw, but without goals. This puts Ukraine in an interesting position. They have to win one game at home and they are through... but the classic conundrum of a nil draw in the first leg (away) is that a score draw at home puts the opponent through on away goals. I still think Ukraine do it.

Russia got by 2-1 and although I didn't see the game the reports indicate it was closer than I had expected. Going away to Slovenia there is a chance this gets complicated but I still think Russia go through.

I thought Bosnia would get a point in the first leg but they came up a bit short. A few fortunate bounces off posts ensured Portugal's one goal was enough. To be completely honest I would still be willing to bet Bosnia win this series. Let's see what happens in midweek.

Ireland played hard but France was just too much to overcome. Going home with a win in their pocket France is likely to be back in the World Cup. Although for the record they did lose to Scotland in Paris during qualification for last year's Euros. Still, there is probably too much quality in the French side.

Uruguay got an away win in San Jose by the minimum. I was not at all surprised by this and it could have been by more. I saw a little more than half of this game and a few things came to mind: 1, the ball bounced off the pitch as much yesterday as it did when the US played there in the spring. At what point does the CR federation just say "okay this is absurd we are going to do something about it". 2, the Uruguayans seemed bent on forcing passes through tiny slivers of holes in the Costa Rican defense (it was usually the final ball) and often it didn't work. With other options available they could have done more damage. If they correct this they might run up the score in Montevideo. 3, most of the game was shot as a close up with the camera quickly following the ball. This gave the awkward feeling of not seeing most of the field and not really knowing what was going on in a larger sense. It is strange and kind of amusing at first but robs the viewer of the usual experience of watching a game on television.

Pitch Itch Predicts

2009-11-12T20:03:00.001-08:00

Here are some quick thoughts on the eve of the play-offs for the final World Cup spots:

Greece-Ukraine
Ukraine clearly has the better squad but Greece are capable of getting results because of their organization and superb game planning. I am fairly certain Ukraine will go through but the first leg I see ending in a draw, maybe 1-1.

Slovenia-Russia
Of all the European series this is the easiest to pick. Russia will cruise to South Africa. If they hadn't been in a group with Germany they would probably be qualified already. Slovenia are not a bad side and can take comfort in making it this far but knocking off the Russians is extremely unlikely. Saturday's game will probably be 3-0 or so.

Portugal-Bosnia
At first glance you might think Portugal are a good bet to go through but it might not be that simple. They are probably still the favorite but take into consideration they will be without Cristiano Ronaldo for at least the first leg, that Carlos Quieroz is a brilliant football mind but a mediocre head coach, and that the team underwhelmed in qualifying and are only here due to the simultaneous collapse of Hungary and Sweden and it looks like Bosnia has a chance. I will say they Lisbon with a draw and Bosnia wins the second leg.

Ireland-France
This could easily be an upset with Ireland knocking off the runners-up of the previous World Cup. France are overloaded with talent but are burdened with an unbelievably cumbersome coach that severely hampers their ability. Ireland are not nearly as talented but do have some skill players in key spots, always come out and play hard from start to finish, and get a hand from Trappatoni on the bench. I am going to say they win the first leg 1-0 then... who knows.

Costa Rica-Uruguay
Here in North America the prevailing line of thought is that this will be a close series and Costa Rica may sneak through. I strongly disagree. Uruguay are in another class. Costa Rica get some respect by being the third best team in Concacaf, but when you think about it that doesn't really say too much. They do have a good record at home but they rarely play tough opponents. Uruguay's squad is not terribly deep but it does include some elite players like Diego Forlan (top scorer in any European league last year) and Luis Suarez (reigning Dutch golden boot). I see a huge gulf in quality as well as tenacity between the two sides. Maybe 2-1 in Costa Rica and then a comfortable Uruguayan win in Montevideo.

Pellegrini Going?

2009-11-11T16:54:00.000-08:00

Of course there have been calls for Pellegrini to leave Real Madrid and thus far the club has supported him. What really caught my attention was that he left Sergio Ramos out of the squad for yesterday's debacle because, according to Pellegrini, he thought the red Ramos received in a league match at the weekend meant he was unavailable. That is worse than when Avram Grant wrote out a team sheet with 10 names. It is borderline unbelievable. Is there any country where cards from one competition apply to another? And even if the answer to that question is yes, Pellegrini has been coaching in Spain's first division for years and should know the rules. When thinking of how that influenced the result of the match... maybe it doesn't look so bad. Madrid held a clean sheet and Ramos presence wide on the right may have threatened but it probably wouldn't have produced another 4 goals. But it does suggest that perhaps Pellegrini's focus on the job at hand is not as sharp as it should be.

On a lighter note I liked the way he handled questions about his decision to bring Marcelo on for Lass. He said he wanted to make sure Lass wasn't hurt and "he wasn't going to score four goals by himself anyway". That made me laugh, and it is true. Still, is an extra defender in place of a holding MF what you want when you are trying to pump in goals? Another move that keeps the doubt buzzing.

In other Pellegrini crisis news there are rumors that Guti may be on his way out at the window. His agent has suggested he may go to Inter, although he admits there has been no contact from the club. Why would Inter want him? I said something similar about Wesley Sneijder and he has turned out to be their best midfielder, but I really don't see Guti moving to the San Siro.

Another Tragedy

2009-11-10T16:49:00.001-08:00

I was about to do a very different post, but then I heard of Robert Enke's death and it kind of discouraged me from the long and fact filled idea I had. That is really sad. Enke was currently Germany's number 1 GK and probably would have been with them in the World Cup next summer. All reports say he was hit by a train and most of them suggest it was a suicide. Very sad story. There have been a lot of these things in the last few months. I wonder if it is just a run of bad luck or if the hyper-coverage and proliferation of media brings these stories to us quicker and in more depth than before. Either way, terrible news.

From tragedy to comedy: Real Madrid eliminated from Copa del Rey by Alcorcon! Hahahaha. After getting trounced 4-0 in the first leg Pellegrini brought out the big guns to try and turn it around at the Bernabeu and all they could manage was a meager 1-0 win over the third division club. You can say everyone gives Real Madrid their A-game but really this is embarrassing. In other Copa matches Barcelona stomped on Culutural 5-0 and Atletico finally won a game comfortably, 6-0 over Marbella.

A Change a Lazio?

2009-11-08T21:20:00.000-08:00

Lazio started out the season with the Italian Super Cup and two league wins but it has been pretty much a disaster from then on. I watched them lose 2-1 to AC Milan at home today and to be fair they probably deserved a point, but after a string of bad performances (including a devestating 4-1 drubbing by Villarreal in Europa League last week) the notion that Davide Ballardini's days at the helm are numbered is becoming unavoidable. Lazio are by no means a title contender but they have the roster and resources to be much better than they have shown recently.

Early this year (not season) there was a rumor that former Lazio player Diego Simeone was on the verge of taking over but it never materialized. He got the San Lorenzo job instead. It just so happens that his natural cycle is appears to be coming to a close at El Ciclon and he could be available if there is a change at Lazio. San Lorenzo are 6 points back of the leaders as the Argentine tournament enters the home stretch and followed up their Copa Sudamericana elimination during the week with a 1-0 home loss to Banfield. Simeone is a very good manager with titles on his resume but when he loses a locker room it is lost forever. Estudiantes and River Plate are good examples.

Asking a guy who is leaving his job on a less-than-high note in South America to turn around a club in Serie A would be unorthodox but his history with the club, managerial success at an early age, and personal status might make him a gamble Lazio are willing to take.

Inter

2009-11-04T16:43:00.000-08:00

That was pretty awesome. The last five minutes of the Dinamo game pretty much erased all the misery that has been Inter in the Champions Leauge so far this season. This has to be one of the weirdest groups in the history of the tournament. After 4 match-days no team has more than 6 points, and every team has a legitimate chance to move on.

Barcelona continue to teeter on the brink of not-so-awesome but I still get the feeling they will beat Dinamo next match and put themselves in a good place. I am very confident for Rubin Kazan's visit to the San Siro.

Fernando Caceres Shot

2009-11-02T17:42:00.000-08:00

Just weeks after the horrible crash involving Charlie Davies tragedy has struck the footballing world again. Former Argentine international and Valencia (amongst others) defender Fernando "el negro" Caceres was shot in the head during an attempted carjacking in Buenos Aires. He is currently in the hospital and doctors had some discouraging words about his chances, although that link has some very emotional pictures of support from fans and players.

When I first read the news it was in a Spanish paper and I thought the name sounded familiar. It took a few moments but as I read on and learned he was currently coaching in the Independiente youth system I realized who it was. I remember Caceres from the team that played the World Cup in the US back in 1994, and also as one of the few (but not that few when you really think about it) to play on both sides of the Superclasico Argentino during his career. This is so sad, Pitch Itchy wishes him well.

Not Yet

2009-11-01T13:50:00.001-08:00

Going into the weekend it really felt (or maybe I wanted it to?) like Real Madrid were about to enter full-blown crisis mode. Turns out I was wrong. Higuain scored 2 goals a few minutes apart and gave them the derby over Getafe. Guti stayed out of the squad and the bad blood with Pellegrini appears to be there still, but with the three points and Barcelona getting turning a win over Osasuna into a draw via a last minute own goal Madrid are now only one point out of first. Spanish football looks different today than a few days back.

And this week will be huge. A win away in Milan would put Madrid in a very safe position in the Champion's League. Meanwhile Barcelona take on Rubin Kazan in Russia with much more riding on the game than anyone thought when the schedule was released. A single point would essentially assure Sevilla's passage to the next round. Interesting times.

Real Intrigues

2009-10-30T15:42:00.000-07:00

As you could have expected the significance of Real Madrid's embarassing 4-1 Copa del Rey loss went well beyond the final whistle. Not long after it was revealed, or rumored (depending on who you believe), that Guti and Pellegrini really got into it. Guti ripped into his teammates in the locker room, which is totally legitimate, and supposedly the manager stepped in and asked everyone to keep their heads and just go out and do their business in the second half. Guti may or may not have been okay with this but he was absolutely not okay when Pellegrini added that Guti would be on the bench in favor of Fernando Gago when the game resumed. Then some say that he told his manager to stick it up... well you know.

If there was any hope of it blowing over and being seen as a passing heat of the moment thing the squad list for this weekend's match squashed it. Shortly after telling the press he would be surprised to be left out of the squad for the derby with Getafe, claiming he was perfectly fit, Guti received the news that he was indeed not included in Real's plans for the weekend. The manager's explanation ran contrary to the player's comments when he blamed an injury, not a personal spat or punishment, was the reason for his exclusion.

This is an intereseting situation. Guti is not the biggest star at the club, by far, but he does have a special place in the Real Madrid universe. He has been there over a decade and is a club legend. When it comes to fan adoration he is behind only Casillas and Raul at the moment (in my opinion as an outsider). Pellegrini is a new coach on a run of bad form, but if he is to succeed, and there is every reason to think the club believes so (or they would have sacked him already) he can not lose a power struggle with any player, even Guti. So there are a million ways to think about this. Maybe Guti knew he wouldn't be included and made his comments to undercut his manager. Maybe he really thought he would be playing. Maybe he didn't want to be seen as disowning the mess the club is in and wanted the fans to believe he was 100 percent committed, come what may. And the options are many on the other side as well.

This has the potential to really drag on and hurt the club. Given the dismal run of form, the difficult schedule ahead, and the elite level of their competitors the Guti-Pellegrini conflict could go beyond a player and manager not seeing eye to eye. We all know who is more likely to exit the club. Then again a win over Getafe and a result in Milan in midweek and the headlines will be Madrid Regain Form, Ronaldo Coming Soon. It will be a pivotal few days in Spanish football.

Madrid Fall Again

2009-10-27T16:45:00.000-07:00

In all honesty I had to check a second website to make sure this wasn't a gag. Real Madrid lost the first leg of their Copa del Rey series to Alcorcon 4-0! This is unbelievable by itself, but take into consideration that a) they went out shamefully last year as well and b) the side Madrid put on the field included Arbeloa, Albiol, Gago, Granero, Raul and Benzema and this has to be in the top 5 most embarrassing Madrid losses of all time.

Since they only managed a meager draw away at Gijon last weekend and got popped at the Bernabeu by AC Milan during the week, naturally calls for Pellegrini's resignation are coming down. It is only natural that someone has to pay the price here, and it may be him. But really who is out there? Does anyone really think what is wrong here is the manager? They finished second in one of the elite leagues in the world then added Karim Benzema, The Greasy One, Kaka, Xabi Alonso, and put two Spanish internationals in their backline.

I still really can't get my head around this. They may be able to turn it around in the second leg, but this is a stain that won't come out in the wash. And like I mentioned before, the margin for error in the league is minuscule. Not only are they chasing the Barcelona machine but a very good Sevilla team is only 3 points back. On current form Sevilla are clearly better than Madrid, and they are in the enviable position of having a perfect record in Europe so far. With their passage to the knockout rounds secure they can prioritize their league matches until the new year. On the other hand Madrid may have a real fight on their hands in a group where they still have to go away to Marseille and Milan. I think Real Madrid will go through but things are very sticky right now at the Bernabeu.

The Shape of Spain

2009-10-25T17:01:00.000-07:00

It is impossible to say for sure but I have a feeling when the winner of the Spanish league is crowned in the spring we will look back on this weekend as a pivotal moment. The top two teams (and to be honest it is a two horse race) had critical games. They both suffered disappointing and maybe embarrassing Champs League losses at home during the week, both were coming off deflating league performances from the previous week, both were trying to shake off the lingering effects of the "virus FIFA" from the international break, and both were up against teams near the bottom of the table.

One showed up and the other didn't. Real Madrid flopped on their visit to Sporting Gijon and got a meager nil draw. It is true they were without certain players like Gonzalo Higuain but the most expensive roster in the history of professional sports should be able to put at least one goal past the just-happy-to-be-here crew from Gijon. On the other hand Barcelona bounced back from two underwhelming results and absolutely plastered Real Zaragoza 6-1 in the Nou Camp. The Zaragoza goal was the product of yet another mental lapse in the Barca defense which has been all too common this season but aside from that it was really a masterful performance. As it stands now Barcelona have only a 3 point lead on Madrid but considering how good they are Real Madrid may not be able to afford falling back any further.

2 Quick Things

2009-10-22T19:22:00.001-07:00

Franck Ribery out for a month. Bad for Bayern because he will miss the CL match with Bordeaux after they lost in France. It could come away being the match that decides BM's Champs League fate. Equally as bad for France because it puts him out of the squad for the two-leg play-off with Ireland for a trip to South Africa. Even before this injury I thought it would be a surprisingly competitive match-up. Even more so now.

And there is news that Wolfsburg have had a "talking to" Brazilian striker and last year's German golden boot Grafite. He hasn't scored in what seems like ages, is lacking focus, and was sent off for a capricious and needless elbow. Raise your hand if you are surprised. Grafite had a hot streak last year but throughout his career he has been a total flake. Now it is just a matter of waiting for the inevitable pictures of him in nightclubs and allegations of a drinking problem followed by the mandatory loan stint back to a Brazilian club so he can "find himself". Yawn.

Upset Tuesday

2009-10-20T19:28:00.001-07:00

I am shocked. I don't think there has been a single day with this many upsets in the Champs League group stage in years. I am not going to say ever, because that is not the kind of thing I do, but off hand none that can top this come to mind. Two outright upsets: Rubin Kazan win 2-1 at the Nou Camp and Lyon knock off Liverpool at Anfield by the same score. Rangers getting stomped 4-1 at Ibrox by a Romanian team alien to most of Europe until recently is surprising, but the more objective and honest you are about Rangers the less shocking it is. They are not an elite European side. Dinamo Kyiv's 2-2 draw at San Siro counts as an upset in nearly every way.

I am only marginally surprised Arsenal were held 1-1 on their visit to AZ Alkmaar. I thought Sevilla would win away to Stuttgart but maybe not by 2 goals, and reading reports of the match it sounds like they really put the screws to Stutt. I know they lost at the weekend with most of their starters on the field but right now Sevilla deserve to be in the conversation for best team in Europe (on current form not favorite to win XYZ, best line-up, etc.).

As always happens in situations like these people are going to be crying about the "FIFA virus" and blame it for the big boys losing games they should walk through. When you consider injuries to guys like Fernando Torres and travel from international duty on other continents it might seem reasonable, but this is the Champions League, nearly every team is loaded with internationals.

As an Inter fan I am legitimately worried about qualifying for the knock out stages. Inter sit bottom of the group with a meager 3 points, although they are the only undefeated team ;) and the other three are only a point ahead. Still, the road ahead is difficult. Away in Kyiv and Barcelona with a home game against R. Kazan sandwiched in between. It seems very likely that Inter will be traveling to the Nou Camp needing a result to go through on the last day of the group stage.

Almost Set

2009-10-19T16:19:00.000-07:00

So spots in South Africa next summer are almost all full. There are 8 left. 2 in Africa that I have no idea/opinion about. New Zealand-Bahrain already played their first leg and I can't really say who is a better team. I believe Uruguay will beat Costa Rica with relative ease over two legs next month. And today UEFA released the match ups for the remaining 4 European spots at the World Cup. Russia has to be a heavy favorite over Slovenia. Portugal take on Bosnia (wink, wink) and would have to beat themselves to not qualify. Greece and Ukraine may be competitive but I admit to know little about either national team. France should cruise past Ireland but for some reason I think this one will be very tight and an upset is possible.

I love the World Cup and now that Argentina have their spot secure I am relaxed and looking forward to South Africa. The play-offs next month and the group drawing shortly thereafter... here we go.

It All Comes Down to This

2009-10-12T17:25:00.001-07:00

Saturday was an emotional roller coaster for Pitch Itchy. On line at Nevada Smith's getting more and more nervous as kick-off time of the Argentina-Peru match approached and we only advanced a few feet in an hour, I was pretty sure it was going to end poorly. Then a friend of a friend got a bar in Brooklyn to pay per view the game and there was a mad scramble over the W-burg bridge and into Green Point. Got there just in time for kick off. Awesome stuff.

The game itself was extremely trying as well. Argentina dominated possession, run of play, opportunities, etc but it was scoreless into the break. After Higuain's goal they took their foot of the gas and just when it looked like they were going to get away with Peru got the equalizer. I was still descending to progressively darker levels of depression when out of nowhere Martin Palermo (!?) slotted the game-winner home. Then the night got really weird/good/bad/memorable. Maybe when you are older we can have a talk about it.

Anyway with Uruguay's victory in Quito this Wednesday's edition of the Battle of the River Plate takes on monumental importance. Because people are miserable and it is the nature of South America (in soccer yes but you can say that about many aspects of life) the conspiracy theorists are busy suggesting there is an agreement between Argentina and Uruguay. This is ridiculous for a bunch of reasons. The easiest way to dispel this myth is by stating the obvious: a draw does not change either team's fate, it all depends on the outcome of Ecuador-Chile which will play at the same time. Argentina have 25 points, Uruguay sit at 24, and Ecuador are right behind them with 23. A draw would leave Uruguay at the mercy of Chile. Are they really going to sign for a draw and hope a team that has already qualified and has nothing to play for goes out and beats an Ecuadoran side fighting for its life? Probably not. Uruguay and Argentina both hold the tiebreaker over Ecuador so if Argentina wins and there is a draw in Santiago, Urguay still go through to the play-off. If there is a draw in Montevideo and Ecuador win, Argentina goes straight to South Africa and Ecuador gets the 4th place team from Concacaf. There are just too many unkowns for these teams to agree a draw.

I thought Argentina's line-up was right for the match on Saturday, although not perfect. So it was not too much of a bummer to learn it will be significantly tweaked for Wednesday. Diego Maradona has had a well chronicled series of debacles as the national team manager and his team selection has left a lot to be desired but right now it looks like he has finally gotten it right. The preliminary line-up appears to be:

Higuain Messi

Lucho Gonzalez Veron Mascherano Jonas

Heinze Schiavi Otamendi Pareja

Romero

This is a more defensive formation than what was really a 3-5-2 against Peru, and for good reason. Uruguay know the only way to ensure they live to see another day is to attack, and they will be willing to do so at home. It is prudent to shore up the side in the back and be patient. Peru allowed Argentina 2/3 of the field essentially free and the formation on Saturday was able to exploit that, but it will be much different in the final match. This line-up is better suited to win balls and battles in the middle of the park. Although I really liked Aimar's performance in Buenos Aires and admit he is a better playmaker than Veron at this point in their careers, Veron's physical attributes and ability to win tackles makes him a better option. A similar argument can be made for the inclusion of Lucho Gonzalez in place of Di Maria (who in my opinion was exceptional against Peru). Lucho is underrated in his ability to do the dirty work sometimes required to win. He is a phenomenal playmaking midfielder but can do the grunt work when asked, and in a clasico against Uruguay that is indispensable. The two guys up front are capable of making the difference in a one-on-one situation and also have the speed to make the counter-strike a realistic threat. All in all I like the line-up as it is taking shape. This will be a classic.

Argentina Squad Takes Shape for Saturday

2009-10-07T15:21:00.001-07:00

It feels like an eternity has passed since the Argentine national team limped out of Asuncion a 1-0 loser last month. Now only 3 days remain until the must-win match against Peru in Buenos Aires. There is mountains of speculation around any international match Argentina plays and it has been even more hectic this time. Today Maradona put together what will likely be the starting 11 for a scrimmage.

Romero

E. Insua Heinze Schiavi Jonas G.

Mascherano Enzo Perez Aimar Di Maria

Messi Higuain

This line up isn't terrible but it is concerning in some areas. Gabriel Heinze has been willing to leave his natural leftback position when asked throughout his career. Unfortunately that has usually resulted in disaster for his team at both club and international level. Against Paraguay he looked out of his element in the middle of the defense, although he did make a superhuman effort to stop a late insurance goal on a Paraguayan counterattack. Next to him will be Rolando Schiavi, closer to 40 than 30, making his second (2nd) appearance for the national team. This duo doesn't fill me with confidence, especially considering center-halfs like Nico Parejo and Martin Demichelis are in the squad. But at the end of the day if Argentina can't get the job done against Peru at home, the deciding factor will probably not be the central defense.

As far as Jonas playing rightback, I think that is a very flexible rightback, kind of like Dani Alves at Barcelona.

I like Aimar as the 10 and Angel Di Maria is a player I have been very high on going back to his days at Rosario Central. Having him attack wide with the possibility of seeing Jonas bomb forward on the opposite side of the field with the two strikers between them I think is a better approach than a line of 3 forwards like Argentina have used in recent qualifiers.

And as for the strikers, the position that has been the biggest source of contention with this team. Higuain as the 9 and Messi doing what he does alongside him. I like this pairing because they complement each other and because pound for pound I think they are best two available players for those positions.

This is a pretty good place to start from. If Peru clam up and park the bus as most expect them to, the Aimar-Messi partnership might be effective in making quick and short passes with other players making runs alongside them. If at first Peru come out to play, Argentina will have the players to stretch the field with. I can not overstate the importance of having a true 9 out there that adds an air dimension to the attack.

Match Day 2 Day 2 (whoa!)

2009-09-30T19:33:00.000-07:00

Another thing about the Inter-Rubin Kazan game yesterday: I had predicted Balotelli would be sent off against Barcelona but he only played like 10 minutes, so the fact he got sent off in the first CL game he started sort of makes me feel validated.

What I take away from today's games is how bad AC Milan and Atletico Madrid really are. I thought Milan would get a result at home but when I saw the game end 1-0 I didn't blink an eye. They are an old team with holes all over the park and a manager in way over his head (and I will admit I am surprised by this I thought Leonardo was prepared to make the leap). This is now 3 straight games were they have been outplayed by what should be inferior competition. AC Milan are unlike many other Italian teams in that they generally allow a manager time to find his footing. In 99% of other Italian clubs Leonardo would be looking at a must-win this weekend, but if the organization believes in him, and it seems like they do, he is probably going to get a chance to right the ship. That said they are zero percent of a threat at either League or Europe.

Atletico Madrid might be the shallowest big club in Europe. The professionals on their roster don't reach 20 and there is no sign of a willingness or ability to change this at window. Although the defense does look a bit better than last year there are major concerns in midfield and the overall managing of the ball over the course of 90 minutes. It can not be overstated how much better this team looks from afar do the individual skill and magic of Forlan and Aguero. In all honesty they should have finished mid-table last season. But with a spot in the CL come expectations and that makes us all shake our heads every time Atletico play. They had to make a GK switch when Roberto got hurt which makes a bad situation worse. Fortunately for them Sergio Asenjo, their real number 1 and one of the hottest young goalies in Europe, will return from the U-20 World Cup soon, although it may be too late.

Fantasy Failure

2009-09-29T19:23:00.001-07:00

I should have posted a million things before this, but I didn't. Whatevs bra', I am oves. Anyway... there is still the second day of matches but this round of Champions League fantasy has not gone well for pitch itchey. Guys I dropped at the last minute include Stevan Jovetic (2 goals against Liverpool) and Pedrito (scored against Dinamo). I also thought about adding Chori Dominguez but didn't and he put one in against Inter. Speaking of Inter, I made Diego Milito my captain which was not a resounding triumph.

On the bright side, maybe, I have Diego Forlan and Radamel Falcao going tomorrow. That game could end 4-4 or something along those lines.

I Will Take the Point

2009-09-16T19:27:00.000-07:00

The clash of champions at San Siro ended in a goal-less draw and I am totally 100 percent okay with that. To be fair Barcelona had the better of the play and could have won, but they didn't. So there. It speaks to just how good they really are that the 4 time defending champion of Italy would clam up for 90 minutes and outright play for the tie at home. Balotelli only played 5 minutes at the end and kept himself out of the referee's book which is a good thing.

The rest of the matches went pretty much as you would expect. When someone tells me the group phase of the Champions League is boring and/or unwatchable I disagree and try to make the case for it, but eventually I am forced to admit it is a bit tedious. The one result that caught me a little by surprise was Rangers getting a point away to Stuttgart. I don't think this Rangers team is that good and will probably finish third behind Stuts and Sevilla.

Champs, Bra'

2009-09-15T17:54:00.000-07:00

Been a hectic few days and haven't been able to post. Too bad because there has been some interseting stuff going on. Anyway, no real surprises today in Champions League. United ground out a win in a tough place to play, Real Madrid and Bayern stomped on minnows, Atletico showed their slump is not confined to domestic opposition, the absence of Diego and Felipe Melo proved that Juve's hot start is mainly because of them, and Chelsea rarely lose at home.

I am pretty excited/nervous about the Inter-Barcelona game tomorrow. I will be at work during the game and am not sure if I can resist checking the score and waiting to watch the whole thing when I get home (I probably can't hold out), but it is too early in the competition to skip out of work early. Here are two predictions I have: If Inter come out in a 4-3-3, Barcelona win. If Balotelli plays he earns himself at least a yellow.

Tough Times

2009-09-08T16:27:00.001-07:00

Turns out I was fortunate not to watch the Argentina-Brazil game live. What a buzzkiller for Labor Day Weekend. I really expected Argentina to come up with a victory and the 3-1 loss stings. The one thing that made me nervous going in was the inexperience of the central defense and that was what cost them. 2 set piece goals in the first half which are attributable to shoddy marking changed the shape of the game.

It is unfair to say the outcome would have been different under the leadership of another manager but it is undeniable that Maradona has hurt this team more than he has helped. With this latest result he has 2 wins and 3 losses in qualifying, a dismal record, and that includes an unforgettable humiliation in La Paz and this latest sour defeat to Brazil at home. At times it really seems like he doesn't understand what a national team manager does at the elite level. Almost like he thinks if he picks 11 players he likes and pats them on the back they can go out and beat anyone because the mighty Maradona believes in them. That is not the way it works. They were beaten by a Brazilian team that has continuity and identity. On top of that they had efficient execution of set pieces and clearly established ideas of how to play the game. Up against 11 players who were just out there to play, depending on the emotional charge of wearing the national team shirt to carry them through, the Brazilian superiority was never in question.

In less than 24 hours Argentina will play what is now the biggest game of the campaign to date, away to Paraguay. For all the stumbles of the Maradona era a win in Asuncion would put them within striking distance of a spot in South Africa. I hope the days since the defeat in Rosario were enough to study the opponent, fix what was wrong, and prepare for this match. Four changes have been made to the squad that started Saturday's game. Tomorrow night Argentina's 11 will be:

Sergio Romero (in for Andujar)

Emiliano Papa (for Otamendi), Heinze, Dominguez, Zanetti

Gago (for Maxi Rodriguez), Mascherano, Veron, Datolo

Messi, Aguero (for Tevez)

I am hoping for the best but to be candid this line-up screams out wait and see. Papa is a good player who can perform at this level but sliding Heinze into central defense to make room for him might not be such an awesome idea. His adventures in that alternate position are well chronicled. This incarnation of the midfield I think will do well. If there was a bright spot on Saturday it was Jesus Datolo, and with Gago in for Maxi I think there is some balance in the middle. Aguero for Tevez is not exactly like for like but it does not give the attack a radically different identity. That an offense featuring those two players plus Lionel Messi has only mustered three goals in the last four competitive games should send up red flags. It is crying out for something new. This would be a great place to try Messi alongside a true 9, either Milito or Lopez, like many have been suggesting for months.

On the other side of the equation there is cause for concern as well. Although Paraguay have looked wobbly in the last several qualifying matches they are still in a commanding position vis-a-vis Argentina. Tata Martino is a very good manager and he knows that a draw is a very comfortable result for his side. He also knows Argentina are coming in desperate and with something to prove. Given this I am sure he has spent the last few days building a safe and sturdy if boring counter-attacking game plan.

I am hoping for the best but doing so with the unfamiliar feeling that Argentina don't walk on the field with the inherent advantage I have come to expect.

The Clasico of Clasicos

2009-09-04T13:07:00.000-07:00

It is almost here. Tomorrow night, Argentina vs. Brazil. This is probably my favorite match up ever. I have a lot of memories of the South American clasico. Some good, some bad, but it is always a great experience. Unfortunately I am going to be traveling and will be relegated to streaming the game if anything.

This particular edition has a lot of interesting subplots. Maradona vs. Dunga 19 years after the famous game from Italia 90, Messi vs. Kaka, the importance it has re WCQ, the change of venue to Rosario, the peculiar mix of players Maradona has called into the squad, the return of Adriano to the Brazilian national team.

I don't think the Brazilian team sheet has been released yet but Argentina will line up in a 4-4-2:

Andjuar

Heinze, Otamendi, Seba Dominguez, Zanetti

Maxi Rodriguez, Mascherano, Veron, Datolo

Messi, Tevez

There are a few question marks with this formation but all in all I think if the players execute Argentina will be fine. In central defense are two players who have never played club football in Europe and have 2 caps between them. That is the bad. The good is that they make up the tandem at Velez Sarsfield, the defending Argentine champions, and were responsible for the league's lowest goals against last term. To be fair Maradona called Otamendi into the squad early on and raised some eyebrows but had his vision vindicated when he came to dominate the first division last year. With Demichelis injured and Coloccini in poor form (he probably shouldn't have even been called to the squad in my opinion) Maradona didn't have many other choices but going with such a green central defense still makes me a bit nervous.

The injury to Jonas Gutierrez is more of a blow than many people thing. In the game in Brazil he was key in shutting down Maicon. This Brazilian team uses the attacking right-back as a key to their offense and Jonas is the perfect player to neutralize that. The job will now fall to Maxi Rodriguez who is a good player but not as specialized in that area.

I continue to think the national team needs a number 9 up front and the Messi-Tevez combo does not strike me as the best option when there are guys like Milito and Licha Lopez to choose from. Still, those two are more than capable of changing a game in flash and over the course of 90 minutes I suspect they will have chance to do so. What I like in this set up is the more narrow look of the team going forward may allow for more coherent linkage between Veron, who will be the 10, and the strikers. In the 4-3-3 they used against Colombia the team was spread to thin for the Veron-Messi partnership to be much of a threat and the opposing defenders snuffed out any danger far from goal.

I like Argentina's options of the bench but Brazil has probably as many weapons to choose from. In addition I think Dunga is a very, very good in-game manager and despite all of Maradona's experience and knowledge he is still new to coaching. For Argentina to win it is imperative that the players on the field beat their men one on one.

My prediction is Argentina 2-0 Brazil.

That. Just. Happened. (yesterday)

2009-08-30T15:46:00.001-07:00

Busy weekend in the world of football. Unfortunately (or more likely, fortunately) I had a lot going on and didn't catch all the games I wanted to. In fact the only game I saw start to finish was the Milan derby. Hahahahaha. Inter destroyed 4-0. Milito looked superb and Eto'o and Sneijder also impressed me. After that display I can brush aside the worries that sprung up with the draw to Bari last week. Even before Gattuso got sent off I thought Milan looked stale. Still very early but it is nice to win that game. And on that point, why is it the second match of the season? Poor planning in my opinion.

Real Madrid ground out a 3-2 win at home over Depor. I am not impressed. El Graciento put in a penalty but looked very mediocre other than that. Most of the new signings played and I wouldn't say they looked bad but this is not the invisible elite team being played up in the Spanish media.

River Plate got a 4-3 win at home over Chacarita. I am happy on the one hand but kind of terrified at the thought I wasn't sure they would get it. This team is really on thin ice and although I haven't blogged much about them it bums me out. I don't think the parade of washed up old-timers are going to do the trick. On any given day one of them can shine, turn back the clock, and make the fans believe like Ortega did today but realistically this is a losing formula. Ortega, Gallardo, and Almeyda were heroes a decade ago at a team that values history and tradition but the current Argentine game is fast and competitive and technical. Too much for them to be the driving engines of a successful side.

Champions Group

2009-08-27T19:45:00.000-07:00

After posting about how unfair it would be for Inter to draw a heavyweight despite winning Serie A they got put in a group with Barcelona. Good work UEFA. This group is the only one of the 8 to be comprised entirely of current champions as Rubin Kazan and Dynamo Kiev are the current title holders in Russia and the Ukraine respectively. Sourness over not being a 1 seed aside I don't think this group is that bad for Inter. The two lower seeds are not exactly giant killers and they will not be playing away at either place late in the year when the temperature and weather can be a factor. Also, the second Barca game, the one at Camp Nou, is on the Tuesday before Barcelona's superclasico against Real Madrid. If things break Inter's way (Barca has sewn up a spot in the round of 16, they are head to head with RM, there is pressure to win that game, etc) it is conceivable they don't get the full force of Barcelona's A-team on their visit to Cataluna. We will see.

On the Eve of the Draw

2009-08-26T18:21:00.000-07:00

The play-in round is over without any major surprises and tomorrow the groups for the 2009-10 Champions League will be determined. The Goal.com link above has a pretty good break down of the way it works. The wizards over at UEFA have the 32 teams broken down into 4 "pots", each group being comprised of a team from each pot with no two teams from the same country sharing a group.

The reason this system is stupid and dumb and should make anyone associated with it blush, apologize, and resign is the insane methodology used in assigning rank to the teams. Just one example: AC Milan did not qualify for last year's CL and finished second in Serie A are in pot 1. Meanwhile city rivals Inter Milan made into the final 16 last year and also won their domestic league, but are in pot 2. I don't care what kind of obscure computation models are used to determine UEFA coefficient, this is proof the system is faulty.

Here is another example: Bundesliga champions VfL Wolfsburg are not a 1 seed or a 2 seed. They are not even a 3 seed. They sit comfortably atop pot 4 where they are waiting to be picked for what will be the most brutal group of death in recent memory. How the team that wins one of the big (even if not elite elite) leagues in Europe is given such a low ranking is a mystery.

I am a little bitter that Inter are in pot 2 but really the drawing is one of the markers that signals the European season is in gear so that is pretty cool. For fun, my ideal group for Inter is as follows: Sevilla, Olympiakos, FC Zurich.

In sort of related news AS is reporting that Wes Sneijder has relented and agreed to leave Real Madrid for Inter for 15 million Euros. Real virtually threw him out the door and I am not super stoked about him coming over. Not bummed either but it just feels like he will be a glorified role-player in what is an already established team.

I am sure I will be back tomorrow with plenty to say.

All Alone-So

2009-08-24T14:05:00.000-07:00

Due to reasons of AC malfunction I happened to be home early from work and catch the Liverpool-Aston Villa game. It is the second time I have seen LFC play this season and for the second time they looked like a team well below their top 4 pedigree. When a team suffers a 3-1 loss at home there are many culprits but the one glaring weakness in this squad is the hole left by Xabi Alonso's departure for Real Madrid. Lucas Leiva has been in his place for now and he is horrible. I know he has had strong moments in the past and being a Brazilian international is not something that happens by accident, but today he looked miserable. The own goal was bad, but even if that were stricken from the record he gave the ball away needlessly more than once, won barely any balls in the midfield, and was unable to start anything even relatively productive going in the other direction. Javier Mascherano looked pretty good at times, breaking up plays that could have resulted in Villa goals, but having Leiva next to him just shows how much Alonso was worth as his partner in the middle of the park.

I know Alberto Aquilani is likely to assume the spot when he heals from injury but even then Alonso's absence will haunt Liverpool. It is too bad for them because the rest of the big 4 seem to have come back to earth a bit (on paper anyway) and the rest of the Liverpool team is pretty solid. They might lack depth but they can put out a solid squad.

Open Up and Say Serie Ahhhhhhh!!!!

2009-08-21T16:39:00.000-07:00

So we are on the eve of the 2009-10 season in Italy. It kind of snuck up on me. Seems like only yesterday I bailed on making the drive up to Boston for the Inter-AC game in favor of the Gold Cup Final at Giants Stadium (smooth move), and now the real action is here. Aside from being an Inter supporter I genuinely love Serie A. Unfortunately... I don't see there being much new and exciting stuff this season in the world of calcio. Inter will defend the crown. I believe an improved Juve will finish second. AC Milan will be weaker than last season but still between 3 and 5 at the end of the season. Fiorentina, Genoa, Lazio, Napoli and maybe one or two other respectable teams will scramble for European places. Roma will continue to fade.

Thoughts on Players
Felipe Melo I think will continue to develop and claim his place as one of the top defensive midfielders in the world.

Not much of a prediction but I think Huntelaar will DESTROY in Serie A. He is well over a goal per game for his career and scored more than could have been expected in the occasional game he got at Real Madrid. He is lethal with one touch and will probably challenge for capocannonnieri this season.

Javier Pastore moved from Argentina's Huracan to Palermo and I could see him taking Italy by storm. He is a tall, quick, and agile play-making midfielder with a precocious mind and eye for the game. If he makes the transition smoothly he has an elite finisher for his passes in Fabrizio Miccoli and the two could make for a devastating combination. If Pastore is on maybe Palermo make a bid for Champions League football.

Play In Wednesday

2009-08-19T16:26:00.000-07:00

As I predicted Lyon won at home, although I thought Anderlecht would give them a game instead of folding 5-1. And Atletico Madrid got a 3-2 win at Pana, which I predicted as well. I was able to catch most of that game and it was pretty interesting. Atletico have some lapses in defense and it cost them twice, but in the attack they are extremely dangerous. Forlan and Aguero's goals showed what makes elite strikers elite. Although the home team made a valiant effort to fight back and got within a goal, this series is over. Not just having to win in Madrid against a superior team but having conceded 3 goals at home make it essentially impossible.

This is the first season the Champions League is being seen on Fox Soccer Channel (here in America) instead of ESPN. This is both good and bad. The good is a more comprehensive coverage package with pre and post games and a nightly highlight show. The commentators are very good as well. Although there were some good guys calling the games on ESPN the harmless but insufferable Tommy Smyth will not be missed by Pitch Itchy. The bad is the lower profile the tournament will have stateside on its new home. The core soccer fan will not think twice about this but for the casual fan or the curious potential fan (of which there are many after the eventful summer of soccer in America) the likelihood of stumbling on a Champions League game on FSC while flipping channels and being drawn in are significantly less than they were when it was on ESPN. Also, and this is pretty big for me, most bars and restaurants constantly have a TV locked on ESPN, making it easy to duck out of work and catch a game under the guise of a "late lunch" then return to work. Many of these places have super-duper TV packages and if you pester the bartender enough you are probably going to get to see the game, but it is not as accessible as ESPN.

Whatever, that is all minor detail stuff. The 2009-2010 season is here!

Play-In Round

2009-08-18T18:49:00.000-07:00

Today saw the first leg in 5 of the 10 play-in match ups for the Champion's League. The new format is a little different than in previous years with an additional qualifying round (the point the tournament is at currently) and some reconfiguring to in theory give clubs from smaller countries more of a chance. Whereas in the past all teams that didn't qualify directly were "thrown into the hat" and drew an opponent at random, from now on clubs that win their domestic league's title will be paired up with champions from other countries. Obviously the title holders from the big nations have earned direct entry to the group stage so this results in pairings of little known teams that have won leagues mostly in Eastern Europe. It also means that some heavyweights will be drawn together and one of them will miss out on the big dance. Arsenal-Celtic is one example. Under the previous system Celtic may have played Sheriff Tiraspol instead and more than likely stomped them. But now, after a 2-0 loss at home, they look likely to be in the inaugural Europa League instead of with the big boys.

Is this good or bad? I am not really sure. All in all I think I am okay with it for two reasons. 1, everyone loves a Cinderella story and this will give more teams a chance to fill that role. 2, I have always liked the idea that these kind of tournaments be for champions and runners-up. Ensuring that at least 5 champions that did not qualify directly are also included in the group stage is a good idea.

But the truth is that the gap between the haves and have nots is so big (and likely to remain that way) that what this system does is water down the competition in the group stages. The third and fourth best teams in Spain, France, and England are light years ahead of the best teams in Macedonia, Israel, and Lithuania.

Take a look at today's results. Arsenal, Stuttgart, and Olympiacos all got 2-0 wins on the road. Fiorentina are going home from Lisbon with a useful 2-2 draw. It is a tiny sample size, yes, but today illustrates the difference between the Europe's elite teams and it's good ones.

Tomorrow's Lyon-Anderlecht game could be interesting although I think the French will win at home. I also think Atletico will win away in Greece.

How Smart am I?

2009-08-15T14:31:00.000-07:00

Well let's not get ahead of ourselves yet. BUT...

I said Hugo Rodallega was a player to watch and he got a goal in Wigan's surprising win at Villa Park.

Other dudes I think might be on the verge of break out years in the Prem are Emiliano Insua at Liverpool and M. Fellaini at Everton. I know Fellaini had a good run of form late last season, but I think he might be poised to really kill it.

The Liverpool-Spurs game tomorrow should be a good one.